The top ten races by betting turnover in the period July to September 2014 were as follows:
1. Ladbrokes St Leger Stakes
2. Betfred Cambridgeshire
3. King George VI and Queen Elizabeth Stakes
4. Coral Eclipse
5. 32Red Cup (Stewards' Cup)
6. William Hill Ayr Gold Cup
7. Betfred Sprint Cup
8. Betfred Ebor
9. Darley July Cup
10. Connolly's Red Mills Cheveley Park Stakes
Source: HBLB
Showing posts with label King George VI and Queen Elizabeth Stakes. Show all posts
Showing posts with label King George VI and Queen Elizabeth Stakes. Show all posts
19 November 2014
26 July 2013
Trend Spotting
One method of trying to narrow down a field and find the potential winner of a race is to follow trends. The gambler will look at the previous winners (and losers) of the race to try and determine if there is a particular type of horse that does well or badly in the contest year after year.
Specific trends could include:
• The fate of the favourite each year
• Horses entered by a particular trainer (you might hear analysts talking about a trainer who ‘farms’ a particular race, meaning they win it regularly)
• Horses carrying a particular weight – maybe no horse carrying more than a certain weight has ever won the race
• Horses that have won or run well in a specific race earlier in the season and come on to run well in the race under consideration
• Horses that have won over the same distance, or maybe are trying this distance for the first time
• The age of horses that win the race or do not do well in the race
This last factor is of particular interest in assessing the 2013 running of the King George VI and Queen Elizabeth Stakes at Ascot in Saturday and shows some of the strengths and weaknesses of relying solely on trends.
The favourite is Cirrus Des Aigles, who is seven years old.
Looking back at the last 12 runnings of the race, going back to 2001, the following trends occur:
• 4-year-olds have won 9/12 races
• 3-year-olds have won 3/12 races
• No horse aged 5 or older has won the race in the last 12 years
On the face of it, therefore, the trends system would dismiss Cirrus Des Aigles’ chances – he is too old.
But, as always, you have to dig a bit deeper and ask a few more questions:
• How many older horses have actually run in the race over that period?
• What profile did those older horses have?
• 4-year-olds dominate the winners but how many take part and is it a good strike rate?
Between 2001 and 2012:
• There were 107 runners
• 16 (15%) were three-year-olds
• 51 (48%) were four-year-olds
• 27 (25%) were five-year-olds
• 9 (8%) were six-year-olds
• 2 (2%) were seven-year-olds
So, in fact, it is five-year-olds who have underperformed most in the race, given the ratio of runners to winners. Four-year-olds accounted for almost 50% of runner and supplied 75% of winners in the last 12 years.
In addition, Cirrus Des Aigles’ profile is very different to the two previous seven-year-olds who have run in the race. Youmzain (third at 12/1 in 2010) and Warrsan (4th at 66/1 in 2005) were both coming to then end of their careers when contesting this race.
By contrast, Cirrus Des Aigles is a better performer than either of those horses and was second only to Frankel in the World Thoroughbred Rankings for the period 1 May to 6 November 2012. He is also rated some 11 lbs better than his rivals on Saturday.
This is not to say that he is a definite winner but it just highlights how dismissing certain runners based on the bare trends alone is not always a recipe for success.
Specific trends could include:
• The fate of the favourite each year
• Horses entered by a particular trainer (you might hear analysts talking about a trainer who ‘farms’ a particular race, meaning they win it regularly)
• Horses carrying a particular weight – maybe no horse carrying more than a certain weight has ever won the race
• Horses that have won or run well in a specific race earlier in the season and come on to run well in the race under consideration
• Horses that have won over the same distance, or maybe are trying this distance for the first time
• The age of horses that win the race or do not do well in the race
This last factor is of particular interest in assessing the 2013 running of the King George VI and Queen Elizabeth Stakes at Ascot in Saturday and shows some of the strengths and weaknesses of relying solely on trends.
The favourite is Cirrus Des Aigles, who is seven years old.
Looking back at the last 12 runnings of the race, going back to 2001, the following trends occur:
• 4-year-olds have won 9/12 races
• 3-year-olds have won 3/12 races
• No horse aged 5 or older has won the race in the last 12 years
On the face of it, therefore, the trends system would dismiss Cirrus Des Aigles’ chances – he is too old.
But, as always, you have to dig a bit deeper and ask a few more questions:
• How many older horses have actually run in the race over that period?
• What profile did those older horses have?
• 4-year-olds dominate the winners but how many take part and is it a good strike rate?
Between 2001 and 2012:
• There were 107 runners
• 16 (15%) were three-year-olds
• 51 (48%) were four-year-olds
• 27 (25%) were five-year-olds
• 9 (8%) were six-year-olds
• 2 (2%) were seven-year-olds
So, in fact, it is five-year-olds who have underperformed most in the race, given the ratio of runners to winners. Four-year-olds accounted for almost 50% of runner and supplied 75% of winners in the last 12 years.
In addition, Cirrus Des Aigles’ profile is very different to the two previous seven-year-olds who have run in the race. Youmzain (third at 12/1 in 2010) and Warrsan (4th at 66/1 in 2005) were both coming to then end of their careers when contesting this race.
By contrast, Cirrus Des Aigles is a better performer than either of those horses and was second only to Frankel in the World Thoroughbred Rankings for the period 1 May to 6 November 2012. He is also rated some 11 lbs better than his rivals on Saturday.
This is not to say that he is a definite winner but it just highlights how dismissing certain runners based on the bare trends alone is not always a recipe for success.
25 July 2013
Racing Preview: King George VI and Queen Elizabeth Stakes
The King George VI and Queen Elizabeth Stakes was first run in 1951 and over the decades has been won by some of the great racehorses. Previous winners of the prestigious race include: Nijinsky (1970), Mill Reef (1971), Troy (1979), and Galileo (2001). Dahlia (1973, 1974) and Swain (1997, 1998) are the only two horses to have won the race twice.
The winner of the 2013 running of the race will collect just over GB£ 600,000 and the French-trained Cirrus Des Aigles is the favourite to win. The gelding has run twice at Ascot before, winning the Qipco Champions Stakes in 2011 and was beaten in the same race a year later by Frankel by one and three-quarter lengths.
Speaking after defeat to Frankel last year, Cirrus Des Aigles’ trainer Corine Barande-Barbe said: "They were very close. We lost two lengths but we'll be better next year!”
The seven-year-old has only run once since that defeat in October 2012, when fifth and well beaten in the Grand Prix de Saint Cloud in late June 2013. Andreas Wohler’s Novellist won the race and lines up against Cirrus Des Aigles again on Saturday.
Jim Bolger’s Irish Derby winner Trading Leather is also in the eight-strong field, as is Sir Michael Stoute’s Hillstar, who was supplemented for the race earlier in the week. The colt was the winner of the King Edward VII Stakes over course and distance at the Royal Ascot meeting last month.
The shape of Saturday’s race changed suddenly on Tuesday morning when St Nicholas Abbey was injured on the gallops in preparation for the race. The fractured leg has ended the colt’s racing career and he underwent surgery on Wednesday to try and save him for a career at stud.
The consequence for the King George VI and Queen Elizabeth Stakes is that Cirrus Des Aigles is now clear of his rivals on official ratings. But he will have to overcome the trend that a horse aged older than four has not won this race since Daylami in 1999 and no horse aged seven has ever won the race.
The winner of the 2013 running of the race will collect just over GB£ 600,000 and the French-trained Cirrus Des Aigles is the favourite to win. The gelding has run twice at Ascot before, winning the Qipco Champions Stakes in 2011 and was beaten in the same race a year later by Frankel by one and three-quarter lengths.
Speaking after defeat to Frankel last year, Cirrus Des Aigles’ trainer Corine Barande-Barbe said: "They were very close. We lost two lengths but we'll be better next year!”
The seven-year-old has only run once since that defeat in October 2012, when fifth and well beaten in the Grand Prix de Saint Cloud in late June 2013. Andreas Wohler’s Novellist won the race and lines up against Cirrus Des Aigles again on Saturday.
Jim Bolger’s Irish Derby winner Trading Leather is also in the eight-strong field, as is Sir Michael Stoute’s Hillstar, who was supplemented for the race earlier in the week. The colt was the winner of the King Edward VII Stakes over course and distance at the Royal Ascot meeting last month.
The shape of Saturday’s race changed suddenly on Tuesday morning when St Nicholas Abbey was injured on the gallops in preparation for the race. The fractured leg has ended the colt’s racing career and he underwent surgery on Wednesday to try and save him for a career at stud.
The consequence for the King George VI and Queen Elizabeth Stakes is that Cirrus Des Aigles is now clear of his rivals on official ratings. But he will have to overcome the trend that a horse aged older than four has not won this race since Daylami in 1999 and no horse aged seven has ever won the race.
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