Much time will need to be spent watching and re-watching the weekend’s action from Cheltenham in search of early clues for the Festival next March.
It might prove to be the case that Sunday’s card provided the most informative races.
One trend that seemed to be apparent over the weekend was that horses at the lower end of the weights were victorious. Some examples:
• Anay Turge (weight 10-10, plus 3 lbs jockey allowance) in the Paddy Power Handicap Chase
• Alvarado (10-0) in the Murphy Group Handicap Chase
• Johns Spirit (10-2) in the Paddy Power Gold Cup (Colour Squadron (10-2) in second place)
• Return Spring (10-2, plus 3 lbs jockey allowance) in the Ultima Business Solutions Handicap Hurdle
• Kid Cassidy (11-0) beating Sire De Grugy (11-10 top weight) in the Shloer Chase
• Dell’ Arca (10-5) in the Greatwood Hurdle
This might be the result of a couple of factors:
• the going, which was reported to be “dead” and “tacky”, making life more difficult for those with more weight to carry
• the timing of the meeting with some horses not fully assessed by the handicapper
One thing is interesting to note – the runner-up in the Greatwood Hurdle was Sametegal, carrying 11-7. The second and third in the Ultima Business Solutions Handicap Hurdle were Salubrious and Southfield Theatre, carrying 11-12 and 11-3 respectively. All three lost out narrowly to much lighter weighted rivals. All three are trained by Paul Nicholls.
What’s the conclusion to draw from this small sample?
• Nicholls’ runners are in the handicapper’s grasp compared to other trainers?
• Nicholls’ runners are in great form and running up to their mark?
• Nicholls’ runners will prosper later in the season, perhaps dropping a few pounds in the handicap whilst other, currently less exposed, rivals go up in weight?
The pondering and analysis continues.
