BHA head of handicapping Phil Smith has published his views of last week's Betfred Gold Cup at the Cheltenham Festival.
He writes:
"Definitely one of the most exciting but perhaps not one of the most outstanding [Gold Cups]."
"It seemed a very straightforward race to rate. You can set your clock by The Giant Bolster at Cheltenham in March. He is always placed. In both 2012 and 2013 I had him performing to 164 and have assessed him at that level again this year."
"As a result Lord Windermere improves from 153 to 165. Time was that observers criticised the RSA Chase claiming that its winners didn't go on but Bobs Worth, Albertas Run, Denman, Trabolgan and now Lord Windermere in the last nine years have shown that winning it is no barrier to success the following year."
Read the handicapper's full thoughts here:
http://www.britishhorseracing.com/goracing/blogs/head_of_handicapping.asp
18 March 2014
17 March 2014
Cheltenham Festival Telegraph Fantasy Racing
Our leading stable finished with a creditable total of just over 1,100 points after the four days of the Cheltenham Festival 2014.
The stable picked up 328 points on Gold Cup day, despite Ruby Walsh not taking several of his rides after an injury.
Lac Fontana won 110 points in the County Handicap Hurdle and Davy Russell's fantastic day in the saddle contributed 160 points.
Roll on next year.
The stable picked up 328 points on Gold Cup day, despite Ruby Walsh not taking several of his rides after an injury.
Lac Fontana won 110 points in the County Handicap Hurdle and Davy Russell's fantastic day in the saddle contributed 160 points.
Roll on next year.
14 March 2014
Cheltenham Festival 2014: Day Four Selections
JCB Triumph Hurdle
Broughton
County Handicap Hurdle
Lac Fontana
Albert Bartlett
Kings Palace
Betfred Gold Cup
Bobs Worth
Foxhunter Chase
Ganbei
Martin Pipe Handicap Hurdle
Vieux Lion Rouge
Grand Annual Chase
Ned Buntline
Broughton
County Handicap Hurdle
Lac Fontana
Albert Bartlett
Kings Palace
Betfred Gold Cup
Bobs Worth
Foxhunter Chase
Ganbei
Martin Pipe Handicap Hurdle
Vieux Lion Rouge
Grand Annual Chase
Ned Buntline
13 March 2014
Cheltenham Festival Telegraph Fantasy Racing
Our leading stable has slipped down the leaderboard to around 3,000th after a mediocre second day of the Cheltenham Festival.
40 points each were picked up by Ruby Walsh (Faugheen), Rebecca Curtis (O'Faolians Boy) and Nicky Henderson (Nicky Henderson). But apart from that it was very slim pickings.
Maybe Thursday's Festival fortunes will be better.
40 points each were picked up by Ruby Walsh (Faugheen), Rebecca Curtis (O'Faolians Boy) and Nicky Henderson (Nicky Henderson). But apart from that it was very slim pickings.
Maybe Thursday's Festival fortunes will be better.
12 March 2014
Cheltenham Festival 2014: Day Two Selections
NIM Novices's Hurdle
Red Sherlock
RSA Chase
Morning Assembly
Coral Cup
Vendor
BetVictor Queen Mother Champion Chase
Arvika Ligeonniere
Glenfarclas Handicap Chase
Star Neuville
Fred Winter Hurdle
Ballyglasheen
Weatherbys Champion Bumper
Modus
Red Sherlock
RSA Chase
Morning Assembly
Coral Cup
Vendor
BetVictor Queen Mother Champion Chase
Arvika Ligeonniere
Glenfarclas Handicap Chase
Star Neuville
Fred Winter Hurdle
Ballyglasheen
Weatherbys Champion Bumper
Modus
Cheltenham Festival: Telegraph Fantasy Racing
One of our stables had a creditable first day and finished in around 1,100th position.
Jockeys Ruby Walsh (Vautour, Quevega) and Tom Scudamore (Western Warhorse) were both winners on the opening day of the Festival and winning selections in the form of Jezki (9/1) and Midnight Prayer (8/1) helped contribute some good points.
Our other stables did not perform quite so well and were well down the field after day one of the Cheltenham Festival.
Jockeys Ruby Walsh (Vautour, Quevega) and Tom Scudamore (Western Warhorse) were both winners on the opening day of the Festival and winning selections in the form of Jezki (9/1) and Midnight Prayer (8/1) helped contribute some good points.
Our other stables did not perform quite so well and were well down the field after day one of the Cheltenham Festival.
11 March 2014
Cheltenham Festival 2014: Day One Selections
The selections for the first day of the Cheltenham Festival 2014:
Sky Bet Supreme Novices' Hurdle:
Wicklow Brave, Gilgamboa
Racing Post Arkle Chase:
Rock On Ruby
Baylis & Harding Handicap Chase:
Wrong Turn
Stan James Champion Hurdle:
Our Conor
OLBG Mares' Hurdle:
L'unique (each-way)
Terry Biddlecombe National Hunt Chase:
Shotgun Paddy
Rewards4Racing Novices' Handicap Chase:
Art of Logistics
This is the battle plan before the action begins. But other last minute, spur of the moment bets are a guarantee!
Sky Bet Supreme Novices' Hurdle:
Wicklow Brave, Gilgamboa
Racing Post Arkle Chase:
Rock On Ruby
Baylis & Harding Handicap Chase:
Wrong Turn
Stan James Champion Hurdle:
Our Conor
OLBG Mares' Hurdle:
L'unique (each-way)
Terry Biddlecombe National Hunt Chase:
Shotgun Paddy
Rewards4Racing Novices' Handicap Chase:
Art of Logistics
This is the battle plan before the action begins. But other last minute, spur of the moment bets are a guarantee!
08 March 2014
Telegraph Cheltenham Fantasy Racing 2014
Been busy these last couple of days trying to select the jockeys and trainers for the Telegraph's fantasy racing game ahead of the 2014 Cheltenham Festival next week.
Some difficult decisions to be made in getting the combinations right, especially as riding plans and entries have not been finalised.
https://fantasyracing.telegraph.co.uk/
Some difficult decisions to be made in getting the combinations right, especially as riding plans and entries have not been finalised.
https://fantasyracing.telegraph.co.uk/
06 March 2014
Festival race preview: Betfred Gold Cup
Bobs Worth (7/4) will seek to defend his Gold Cup crown for Nicky Henderson. He was last seen beating First Lieutenant (14/1) in the Lexus Chase at Leopardstown in December.
Much debate centres around what the result would have been in last year’s race had Silviniaco Conti (3/1) not fallen. Paul Nicholls’ gelding is back again to take on Bobs Worth after beating Cue Card in the King George VI Chase at Kempton.
The withdrawal of Cue Card with injury and former champion Long Run’s likely run in the Grand National means that the 2014 running of the Betfred Gold Cup does not have some of the strength in depth of recent years.
Much debate centres around what the result would have been in last year’s race had Silviniaco Conti (3/1) not fallen. Paul Nicholls’ gelding is back again to take on Bobs Worth after beating Cue Card in the King George VI Chase at Kempton.
The withdrawal of Cue Card with injury and former champion Long Run’s likely run in the Grand National means that the 2014 running of the Betfred Gold Cup does not have some of the strength in depth of recent years.
Festival race preview: Albert Bartlett Novices’ Hurdle
David Pipe’s Kings Palace (3/1) was the long time favourite for this race with three wins from three runs this season. This included a victory in the Albert Bartlett Novices’ Hurdle at Cheltenham in December when he beat Masters Hill (40/1) by 14 lengths.
But Willie Mullins’ Briar Hill (9/4) has replaced Kings Palace at the head of the market. The six-year-old is also unbeaten and won the Weatherbys Champion Bumper at the Festival last year at 25/1.
Beyond the first two, the betting is very open: Captain Cutter 8/1; Faugheen 10/1; Deputy Dan 16/1.
But Willie Mullins’ Briar Hill (9/4) has replaced Kings Palace at the head of the market. The six-year-old is also unbeaten and won the Weatherbys Champion Bumper at the Festival last year at 25/1.
Beyond the first two, the betting is very open: Captain Cutter 8/1; Faugheen 10/1; Deputy Dan 16/1.
Festival race preview: JCB Triumph Hurdle
This year’s protagonists will find it difficult to match Our Conor’s impressive performance in this race last year.
The betting is very open with only two horses at single figure odds with Ladbrokes: Calipto (5/1) and Le Rocher (6/1).
Calipto is unbeaten in two stats over hurdles for Paul Nicholls, both at Newbury. Le Rocher (Nick Williams) is also unbeaten, including a 10 length victory in the JCB Triumph Hurdle Trial at Cheltenham in January.
Royal Irish Hussar (14/1) also won a JCB Triumph Hurdle Trial at Cheltenham in November 2013, when Guitar Pete (10/1) was second. But a month later Royal Irish Hussar was beaten 16 lengths in third at Doncaster, behind Fox Norton and Broughton (10/1).
The betting is very open with only two horses at single figure odds with Ladbrokes: Calipto (5/1) and Le Rocher (6/1).
Calipto is unbeaten in two stats over hurdles for Paul Nicholls, both at Newbury. Le Rocher (Nick Williams) is also unbeaten, including a 10 length victory in the JCB Triumph Hurdle Trial at Cheltenham in January.
Royal Irish Hussar (14/1) also won a JCB Triumph Hurdle Trial at Cheltenham in November 2013, when Guitar Pete (10/1) was second. But a month later Royal Irish Hussar was beaten 16 lengths in third at Doncaster, behind Fox Norton and Broughton (10/1).
04 March 2014
Festival race preview: Ladbrokes World Hurdle
The announcement by Willie Mullins last weekend that his unbeaten mare Annie Power (7/4) will take her chance in the Ladbrokes World Hurdle at the Festival has added extra spice to the event.
Four-time winner Big Buck’s (7/4) is aiming to return to reclaim his crown and the sponsors cannot split the two in the betting.
Big Buck’s’ record at Cheltenham is not in question but at 11 years old, is age catching up with him? Annie Power is six years old and the last six-year-old to win this race was… Big Buck’s.
At Fishers Cross (5/1) posted a much better effort in the Cleeve Hurdle at Cheltenham back in January when finishing a narrow runner-up to Knockara Beau (Big Buck’s was in third on his comeback from injury).
After an excellent season in 2012/2013, Rebecca Curtis’ gelding had not been able to recapture that form at the start of this season.
Four-time winner Big Buck’s (7/4) is aiming to return to reclaim his crown and the sponsors cannot split the two in the betting.
Big Buck’s’ record at Cheltenham is not in question but at 11 years old, is age catching up with him? Annie Power is six years old and the last six-year-old to win this race was… Big Buck’s.
At Fishers Cross (5/1) posted a much better effort in the Cleeve Hurdle at Cheltenham back in January when finishing a narrow runner-up to Knockara Beau (Big Buck’s was in third on his comeback from injury).
After an excellent season in 2012/2013, Rebecca Curtis’ gelding had not been able to recapture that form at the start of this season.
Festival race preview: Ryanair Chase
Two greys head the market for the Ryanair Chase in the form of David Pipe’s Dynaste (4/1) and Paul Nicholls’ Al Ferof (9/2).
Both contested the William Hill King George VI Chase at Kempton in December and both finished someway behind Silviniaco Conti.
Dynaste finished second to Benefficient (5/1) in the Jewson Novices’ Chase at last year’s Festival and Tony Martin’s gelding is 5/1 for this year’s Ryanair Chase.
Martin explained his plans for Benefficient: "I'm happy with him and am very keen to go to the Ryanair, I don't really want to come down in trip with him. Two-miles-five round Cheltenham is ideal. He'd want three miles on an easy track and I'd rather go for the race that suits him."
Both contested the William Hill King George VI Chase at Kempton in December and both finished someway behind Silviniaco Conti.
Dynaste finished second to Benefficient (5/1) in the Jewson Novices’ Chase at last year’s Festival and Tony Martin’s gelding is 5/1 for this year’s Ryanair Chase.
Martin explained his plans for Benefficient: "I'm happy with him and am very keen to go to the Ryanair, I don't really want to come down in trip with him. Two-miles-five round Cheltenham is ideal. He'd want three miles on an easy track and I'd rather go for the race that suits him."
Festival race preview: JLT Novices’ Chase
Paul Nicholls’ Wonderful Charm (6/1) was beaten by Oscar Whisky (7/1) by half a length at Cheltenham in December when giving Nicky Henderson’s runner 8 lbs. But now racing on level weights Wonderful Charm is the favourite for the JLT Novices’ Chase.
The two are split in the betting by Willie Mullins’ Felix Younger (6/1).
The two are split in the betting by Willie Mullins’ Felix Younger (6/1).
03 March 2014
Festival race preview: Weatherbys Champion Bumper
With winning SPs of 25/1, 16/1, 14/1 and 40/1 in recent years, you get rewarded handsomely if you can pick the winner of the Champion Bumper.
As such, if might be a waste of time looking at the runners at the head of the betting – Black Hercules (Willie Mullins), Shaneshill (Willie Mullins) and Vigil (Dermot Weld).
Trainer Willie Mullins has won the race for the last two years (with Briar Hill and Champagne Fever). Mullins also trained the last favourite to win this competitive race in the form of Missed That in 2005.
As such, if might be a waste of time looking at the runners at the head of the betting – Black Hercules (Willie Mullins), Shaneshill (Willie Mullins) and Vigil (Dermot Weld).
Trainer Willie Mullins has won the race for the last two years (with Briar Hill and Champagne Fever). Mullins also trained the last favourite to win this competitive race in the form of Missed That in 2005.
02 March 2014
Festival race preview: Queen Mother Champion Chase
The betting for the 2014 Queen Mother Champion Chase was shaken up with the news at the end of February that defending Champion Sprinter Sacre would miss the Festival.
As a result, Gary Moore’s eight-year-old Sire De Grugy is the 2/1 favourite. In two races round the Cheltenham course Sire De Grugy has finished second on both occasions, first to Captain Conan (6/1) and then to Kid Cassidy (10/1).
But the eight-year-old got revenge over Captain Conan in the Tingle Creek Chase at Sandown last December (Somersby (20/1) was second).
Trainer Nicky Henderson has won this race for the last two years and, while there might be nothing of the quality of Sprinter Sacre in 2014, Captain Conan and Kid Cassidy could see him land the prize again.
As a result, Gary Moore’s eight-year-old Sire De Grugy is the 2/1 favourite. In two races round the Cheltenham course Sire De Grugy has finished second on both occasions, first to Captain Conan (6/1) and then to Kid Cassidy (10/1).
But the eight-year-old got revenge over Captain Conan in the Tingle Creek Chase at Sandown last December (Somersby (20/1) was second).
Trainer Nicky Henderson has won this race for the last two years and, while there might be nothing of the quality of Sprinter Sacre in 2014, Captain Conan and Kid Cassidy could see him land the prize again.
Festival race preview: RSA Chase
Another race at the 2014 Festival for which the betting is currently headed by a Willie Mullins-trained runner.
Ballycasey’s (5/1) sole defeat came when third behind Morning Assembly (8/1) at Punchestown last April.
It was reported last week that jockey Davy Russell could be in line for the ride on Morning Assembly because the Ruby Walsh, the usual partner for Pat Fahy’s gelding, is likely to be aboard Ballycasey.
Fahy explained the situation: "We've booked Davy to ride the horse on the understanding that if Ruby became available, which I know looks slim at this stage, then things could change. We're leaving the door open for Ruby as he has ridden him all season and knows the horse well, but if Davy rides, we'll be 100 per cent happy.”
Alan King opted to close his stable for a period earlier this season when his horses were not performing but that break could have a silver lining as the season reaches its climax. King’s horses may have inadvertently benefited from their lack of racing during the poor weather when the ground was heavy. They could be all the fresher for it.
King’s Smad Place (7/1) is second favourite and won a three mile novices’ chase at Newbury in February, beating Sam Winner (12/1) by two lengths, who in turn was 31 lengths ahead of Mendip Express.
Ballycasey’s (5/1) sole defeat came when third behind Morning Assembly (8/1) at Punchestown last April.
It was reported last week that jockey Davy Russell could be in line for the ride on Morning Assembly because the Ruby Walsh, the usual partner for Pat Fahy’s gelding, is likely to be aboard Ballycasey.
Fahy explained the situation: "We've booked Davy to ride the horse on the understanding that if Ruby became available, which I know looks slim at this stage, then things could change. We're leaving the door open for Ruby as he has ridden him all season and knows the horse well, but if Davy rides, we'll be 100 per cent happy.”
Alan King opted to close his stable for a period earlier this season when his horses were not performing but that break could have a silver lining as the season reaches its climax. King’s horses may have inadvertently benefited from their lack of racing during the poor weather when the ground was heavy. They could be all the fresher for it.
King’s Smad Place (7/1) is second favourite and won a three mile novices’ chase at Newbury in February, beating Sam Winner (12/1) by two lengths, who in turn was 31 lengths ahead of Mendip Express.
Festival race preview: Neptune Investment Management Novices’ Hurdle
Willie Mullins’ Faugheen (5/2) holds three entries at the Festival, of which this race is one. The six-year-old is unbeaten in three starts over hurdles and has been heavily odds-on on each occasion.
Also unbeaten is Red Sherlock (5/1), and David Pipe’s five-year-old has won twice round Cheltenham too.
In January he beat Rathvinden (16/1) by two and a half lengths on heavy ground in the race of the same name and the first two were well clear of Aubusson (29 lengths back in third).
Pipe is also represented by Un Temps Pour Tout (14/1), winner of another Neptune Investment Management Novices’ Hurdle in February, this time at Ascot. Again, the ground was heavy and the five-year-old gave a heavy beating to his rivals – 16 lengths, and 28 lengths between the first three home.
Several contenders hold multiple entries at the Festival, so the picture will become clearer as plans are finalised.
Also unbeaten is Red Sherlock (5/1), and David Pipe’s five-year-old has won twice round Cheltenham too.
In January he beat Rathvinden (16/1) by two and a half lengths on heavy ground in the race of the same name and the first two were well clear of Aubusson (29 lengths back in third).
Pipe is also represented by Un Temps Pour Tout (14/1), winner of another Neptune Investment Management Novices’ Hurdle in February, this time at Ascot. Again, the ground was heavy and the five-year-old gave a heavy beating to his rivals – 16 lengths, and 28 lengths between the first three home.
Several contenders hold multiple entries at the Festival, so the picture will become clearer as plans are finalised.
01 March 2014
Festival race preview: Stan James Champion Hurdle
It is a case of experience (and age!) versus youth in the 2014 Stan James Champion Hurdle.
Hurricane Fly is the defending champion (as well as winning it in 2011 and being third in 2012) and is 3/1 with the sponsors to defend his title at the age of 10.
His main rivals are considerably younger, in the form of The New One (six years old; 3/1), My Tent Or Yours (seven; 9/2) and Our Conor (five; 9/2).
Hurricane Fly is unbeaten in nine races since the Festival last March and has beaten Our Conor and Jezki (10/1) on a couple of occasions this season.
Willie Mullins’ eventual Festival plans for the unbeaten mare Annie Power (8/1) could well shake up the betting. She is entered in the Champion Hurdle but it seems likely that she will be kept apart from stablemate Hurricane Fly.
UPDATE: Willie Mullins told At The Races on Sunday 2 March that Annie Power will take on Big Buck's in the Ladbrokes World Hurdle.
Hurricane Fly is the defending champion (as well as winning it in 2011 and being third in 2012) and is 3/1 with the sponsors to defend his title at the age of 10.
His main rivals are considerably younger, in the form of The New One (six years old; 3/1), My Tent Or Yours (seven; 9/2) and Our Conor (five; 9/2).
Hurricane Fly is unbeaten in nine races since the Festival last March and has beaten Our Conor and Jezki (10/1) on a couple of occasions this season.
Willie Mullins’ eventual Festival plans for the unbeaten mare Annie Power (8/1) could well shake up the betting. She is entered in the Champion Hurdle but it seems likely that she will be kept apart from stablemate Hurricane Fly.
UPDATE: Willie Mullins told At The Races on Sunday 2 March that Annie Power will take on Big Buck's in the Ladbrokes World Hurdle.
Festival race preview: Racing Post Arkle
The 2014 Arkle is a more open betting heat than it has been in the last couple of years, which have both been landed by odds-on favourites (2013: Simonsig 8/15f, 2012: Sprinter Sacre 8/11f).
Willie Mullins’ Champagne Fever (3/1) heads the betting and is 2/2 in wins/runs at the Cheltenham Festival.
But not far behind – all at 5/1 – are Trifolium (Charles Byrnes), Dodging Bullets (Paul Nicholls) and Rock On Ruby (Harry Fry).
Trainer Alan King won this race two years running with Voy Por Ustedes (2006) and My Way De Solzen (2007) and Valdez (9/1) should not be dismissed in 2014.
Willie Mullins’ Champagne Fever (3/1) heads the betting and is 2/2 in wins/runs at the Cheltenham Festival.
But not far behind – all at 5/1 – are Trifolium (Charles Byrnes), Dodging Bullets (Paul Nicholls) and Rock On Ruby (Harry Fry).
Trainer Alan King won this race two years running with Voy Por Ustedes (2006) and My Way De Solzen (2007) and Valdez (9/1) should not be dismissed in 2014.
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