Showing posts with label Dynaste. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Dynaste. Show all posts
23 February 2015
04 March 2014
Festival race preview: Ryanair Chase
Two greys head the market for the Ryanair Chase in the form of David Pipe’s Dynaste (4/1) and Paul Nicholls’ Al Ferof (9/2).
Both contested the William Hill King George VI Chase at Kempton in December and both finished someway behind Silviniaco Conti.
Dynaste finished second to Benefficient (5/1) in the Jewson Novices’ Chase at last year’s Festival and Tony Martin’s gelding is 5/1 for this year’s Ryanair Chase.
Martin explained his plans for Benefficient: "I'm happy with him and am very keen to go to the Ryanair, I don't really want to come down in trip with him. Two-miles-five round Cheltenham is ideal. He'd want three miles on an easy track and I'd rather go for the race that suits him."
Both contested the William Hill King George VI Chase at Kempton in December and both finished someway behind Silviniaco Conti.
Dynaste finished second to Benefficient (5/1) in the Jewson Novices’ Chase at last year’s Festival and Tony Martin’s gelding is 5/1 for this year’s Ryanair Chase.
Martin explained his plans for Benefficient: "I'm happy with him and am very keen to go to the Ryanair, I don't really want to come down in trip with him. Two-miles-five round Cheltenham is ideal. He'd want three miles on an easy track and I'd rather go for the race that suits him."
24 December 2013
Racing Preview: King George VI Chase, Kempton
A lot can happen in 12 months. On Boxing Day last year Long Run was 15/8f for the King George VI Chase at Kempton and rallied late on to beat Captain Chris (16/1) by a neck.
A year on and Boxing Day 2013 sees Long Run 10/1 for this year’s race and a horse he had about 20 lengths behind him in 2012 – Cue Card – heading the market at 3/1f.
The reason for Cue Card holding favouritism is largely down to his win in the Betfair Chase at Haydock last month. It seemed to remove doubts about him staying three miles and in addition he beat several of his King George VI rivals that day too – Dynaste (2nd), Silviniaco Conti (3rd), Long Run (4th). So his recent form is good.
But Cue Card’s apparent preference for left-handed tracks – Cheltenham, Aintree, Haydock, Newbury – combined with trainer Colin Tizzard’s reports of a virus in his yard (the severity of which has been hard to determine) make me cautious of backing him at 3/1. A better showing in last year’s race would have given me greater cause for confidence too.
Long Run’s price causes me the opposite problem. I try to allocate in dispassionate manner a numerical rating to various aspects of a horse’s form which I consider important. As a two-time previous winner of the race, as well as a second to Kauto Star, plus a further win over course and distance, Long Run scores very highly in my ratings, even when his rating is dragged down by his score for recent form.
As such, my home-made ratings make Long Run a 6/1 shot for the race when his general price is 10/1. In theory then he is a good bet – I am getting a bigger price than I think he should be. But it is hard to get away from his runs so far this season. His performance at Wetherby was poor and, although he improved at Haydock, it was not Class 1 winning form.
A ratings system will always tend to be biased towards “past glories” rather than capturing “future progress” but if Long Run drifts out to 12/1, 14/1, it might be hard to resist an each-way bet.
Riverside Theatre was back to winning ways at Huntingdon in the Peterborough Chase, with Champion Court in second place. But Riverside Theatre’s jumping that day did not inspire confidence and this race could be too soon for him after his efforts that day.
The selection is Dynaste (10/3). David Pipe’s runner has winning form over course and distance and soft ground appears no hindrance (Kempton’s going was changed to "soft" on Christmas Eve after 30mm of rain). His second place to Cue Card in the Betfair Chase was his first run of the season. He had been due to run first at Wetherby and was then switched from the Gold Cup at Cheltenham in preference for Haydock.
I am expecting improvement from that outing and hope he can cover some of the Christmas expenses.
A year on and Boxing Day 2013 sees Long Run 10/1 for this year’s race and a horse he had about 20 lengths behind him in 2012 – Cue Card – heading the market at 3/1f.
The reason for Cue Card holding favouritism is largely down to his win in the Betfair Chase at Haydock last month. It seemed to remove doubts about him staying three miles and in addition he beat several of his King George VI rivals that day too – Dynaste (2nd), Silviniaco Conti (3rd), Long Run (4th). So his recent form is good.
But Cue Card’s apparent preference for left-handed tracks – Cheltenham, Aintree, Haydock, Newbury – combined with trainer Colin Tizzard’s reports of a virus in his yard (the severity of which has been hard to determine) make me cautious of backing him at 3/1. A better showing in last year’s race would have given me greater cause for confidence too.
Long Run’s price causes me the opposite problem. I try to allocate in dispassionate manner a numerical rating to various aspects of a horse’s form which I consider important. As a two-time previous winner of the race, as well as a second to Kauto Star, plus a further win over course and distance, Long Run scores very highly in my ratings, even when his rating is dragged down by his score for recent form.
As such, my home-made ratings make Long Run a 6/1 shot for the race when his general price is 10/1. In theory then he is a good bet – I am getting a bigger price than I think he should be. But it is hard to get away from his runs so far this season. His performance at Wetherby was poor and, although he improved at Haydock, it was not Class 1 winning form.
A ratings system will always tend to be biased towards “past glories” rather than capturing “future progress” but if Long Run drifts out to 12/1, 14/1, it might be hard to resist an each-way bet.
Riverside Theatre was back to winning ways at Huntingdon in the Peterborough Chase, with Champion Court in second place. But Riverside Theatre’s jumping that day did not inspire confidence and this race could be too soon for him after his efforts that day.
The selection is Dynaste (10/3). David Pipe’s runner has winning form over course and distance and soft ground appears no hindrance (Kempton’s going was changed to "soft" on Christmas Eve after 30mm of rain). His second place to Cue Card in the Betfair Chase was his first run of the season. He had been due to run first at Wetherby and was then switched from the Gold Cup at Cheltenham in preference for Haydock.
I am expecting improvement from that outing and hope he can cover some of the Christmas expenses.
19 November 2013
Racing Preview: The Lancashire Chase (Betfair Chase)
The Betfair Chase at Hyadock on Saturday (23 November) could see several of the jump season’s big guns line up against one another.
10 are declared at this stage including last season’s Cheltenham Gold Cup winner Bobs Worth (Nicky Henderson) and the winner of the 2012 Betfair Chase Silviniaco Conti (Paul Nicholls). These two are at the head of the betting for the 2013 running of the Betfair Chase at 2/1 and 5/2 respectively.
Long Run is also declared and he will need to improve markedly from his run in the Charlie Hall Chase at Wetherby earlier in the month (a distant fifth when odds-on favourite). An early price of 12/1, sixth in the betting, reflects the size of the task the bookmakers think he faces.
Tidal Bay was a winner on that same card at Wetherby in the bet365 Hurdle and is also entered in the Betfair Chase with an early price of 7/1.
Colin Tizzard’s Cue Card, beaten favourite in the Haldon Gold Cup when trying to carry top weight a few weeks ago, is also entered, as is David Pipe’s Dynaste.
The Irish challenge comes from the JNwine.com Champion Chase winner Roi Du Mee (Gordon Elliott) and Prince De Beauchene (Willie Mullins), who was well beaten in third in that same race.
If all runners stand their ground the trainers can’t be accused of dodging their main rivals early in the season. Some reputations could take a bit of a hit after Saturday’s race is run.
10 are declared at this stage including last season’s Cheltenham Gold Cup winner Bobs Worth (Nicky Henderson) and the winner of the 2012 Betfair Chase Silviniaco Conti (Paul Nicholls). These two are at the head of the betting for the 2013 running of the Betfair Chase at 2/1 and 5/2 respectively.
Long Run is also declared and he will need to improve markedly from his run in the Charlie Hall Chase at Wetherby earlier in the month (a distant fifth when odds-on favourite). An early price of 12/1, sixth in the betting, reflects the size of the task the bookmakers think he faces.
Tidal Bay was a winner on that same card at Wetherby in the bet365 Hurdle and is also entered in the Betfair Chase with an early price of 7/1.
Colin Tizzard’s Cue Card, beaten favourite in the Haldon Gold Cup when trying to carry top weight a few weeks ago, is also entered, as is David Pipe’s Dynaste.
The Irish challenge comes from the JNwine.com Champion Chase winner Roi Du Mee (Gordon Elliott) and Prince De Beauchene (Willie Mullins), who was well beaten in third in that same race.
If all runners stand their ground the trainers can’t be accused of dodging their main rivals early in the season. Some reputations could take a bit of a hit after Saturday’s race is run.
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