Cheltenham Festival 2015 race preview: Betfred Gold Cup

Solving the puzzle of the 2015 running of the Betfred Cheltenham Gold Cup partly revolves around the emphasis that is placed on Cheltenham form versus current season form.

Silviniaco Conti (Paul Nicholls) is the clear 3/1 favourite and has had a strong season but his record at the Cheltenham Festival reads 3F4, with the last two runs being in the Gold Cup itself. So, with a win record of 0/3, there has to be a strong argument made that something is different this time around.

In recent history, no horse has come back to win the Gold Cup having failed to win it in a previous year.

Kauto Star won the race in 2007, was defeated in 2008, and then returned to win again in 2009.

The argument that it will be third time lucky in the race for Silviniaco Conti is based in the claim that the horse was suffering from gastric ulcers last season – although he was able to win at Aintree a month after losing at Cheltenham.

Paul Nicholls has told Sportinglife.com: “What he’s doing this year, which he didn’t do last year, is finishing off his races strongly. We found out after he won at Aintree last year that he was suffering from gastric ulcers. We’ve been on top of that now and it’s obviously made a difference, along with the cheekpieces which have got him jumping sharper and stopped him being lazy.”

He also views the horse’s record at Cheltenham as “unlucky”:

“He’s been very unlucky at Cheltenham in a lot of ways. He ran very well once there in the Bula, was going very well when he fell at the third last in the Gold Cup two years ago and last year he jumped the last in front, so you can’t say he doesn’t act there.”

By contrast, Lord Windermere’s win record at the Festival is 2/2 and is 14/1 for this year’s Gold Cup. But his form this season has been lacklustre – although this is no different to his performances before last season’s Gold Cup - and reigning Gold Cup champions have struggled to retain their title in the following season.

The money this week has been for Djakadam (Willie Mullins), who is in from 16/1 to 12/1. He won a foggy running of the Thyestes Handicap Chase at Gowran Park in January 2015 but was beaten a long way in 8th in the Hennessy Gold Cup behind Many Clouds (8/1 for the Gold Cup) in his seasonal debut in November 2014. He is only six years old, however, and there has been only one winner of that age since 2004 (2009: Long Run).

Cheltenham Festival 2015 race preview: Betfred Gold Cup

Cheltenham Festival 2015: Betfred Gold Cup

GBR Fantasy Jumps Series 2014-2015

The Coral Welsh Grand National at Chepstow was another lucrative source of points for our leading stable.

Big Saturday races on heavy ground are trainer Venetia Williams' speciality and she proved this again with Emperor's Choice (9/1) giving her a second success in the Welsh Grand National. The seven-year-old rallied in after the final fence to beat Benvolio (11/1) by a short head.

Emperor's Choice and Benvolio were our two selections in the race but, with regard to earning points, it would have been better if the placings had been reversed. Nevertheless, we still earned over 300 points on the race in total. Combined with the 294 points (Silviniaco Conti (15/8f), Al Ferof (7/1)) we took from the King George VI Chase at Kempton Park on Boxing Day and have moved to around 150th place in the leaderboard.

There is now the option to make a few changes to the stable jockeys and trainers before the next race in the series at Sandown on 3 January 2015.

Festival race preview: Betfred Gold Cup

Bobs Worth (7/4) will seek to defend his Gold Cup crown for Nicky Henderson. He was last seen beating First Lieutenant (14/1) in the Lexus Chase at Leopardstown in December.

Much debate centres around what the result would have been in last year’s race had Silviniaco Conti (3/1) not fallen. Paul Nicholls’ gelding is back again to take on Bobs Worth after beating Cue Card in the King George VI Chase at Kempton.

The withdrawal of Cue Card with injury and former champion Long Run’s likely run in the Grand National means that the 2014 running of the Betfred Gold Cup does not have some of the strength in depth of recent years.

Racing Preview: The Lancashire Chase (Betfair Chase)

The Betfair Chase at Hyadock on Saturday (23 November) could see several of the jump season’s big guns line up against one another.

10 are declared at this stage including last season’s Cheltenham Gold Cup winner Bobs Worth (Nicky Henderson) and the winner of the 2012 Betfair Chase Silviniaco Conti (Paul Nicholls). These two are at the head of the betting for the 2013 running of the Betfair Chase at 2/1 and 5/2 respectively.

Long Run is also declared and he will need to improve markedly from his run in the Charlie Hall Chase at Wetherby earlier in the month (a distant fifth when odds-on favourite). An early price of 12/1, sixth in the betting, reflects the size of the task the bookmakers think he faces.

Tidal Bay was a winner on that same card at Wetherby in the bet365 Hurdle and is also entered in the Betfair Chase with an early price of 7/1.

Colin Tizzard’s Cue Card, beaten favourite in the Haldon Gold Cup when trying to carry top weight a few weeks ago, is also entered, as is David Pipe’s Dynaste.

The Irish challenge comes from the JNwine.com Champion Chase winner Roi Du Mee (Gordon Elliott) and Prince De Beauchene (Willie Mullins), who was well beaten in third in that same race.

If all runners stand their ground the trainers can’t be accused of dodging their main rivals early in the season. Some reputations could take a bit of a hit after Saturday’s race is run.