GBR Fantasy Jumps Series 2014-2015

What a finale to the 2014-2015 Fantasy Jumps Series! Our season-long strategy of focusing on the jockey-trainer-horse combinations paid dividends with Leighton Aspell and Oliver Sherwood combining to win the Crabbies' Grand National 2015 with 25/1 shot Many Clouds.

The trainer and jockey each earned 480 points for their success and meant our stable accumulated a fantastic 1,180 points on the final day of the series. An excellent haul.

This meant our stable finished with just short of 6,000 points and comfortably inside the top 150. It looks like the competition winners finished with around 7,150 points.

Crabbies' Grand National 2015: race preview

The money continues to come for Shutthefrontdoor, the final ride for champion jockey AP McCoy in the Crabbies' Grand National. McCoy has hinted that if he wins a second Grand National he will retire that very afternoon rather than ride on until the end of the season. If he does win then a few bookmakers might want to retire too!

Shutthefrontdoor was 8/1 but is now 6/1 with Ladbrokes overnight on Friday. The 2014 winner Pineau De Re lines up to defend his crown at a similar price of 25/1 as he was last year.

An injury to jockey Robbie McNamara on Friday could mean a late spare Grand National ride for Katie Walsh on Lord Windermere (50/1).

GBR Fantasy Jumps Series 2014-2015

After six months, starting with the Paddy Power Gold Cup back in November, the GBR Fantasy Jumps Series comes to head with the Crabbies' Grand National at Aintree on Saturday 11 April.

Our stable goes into the final two races on the calendar placed just outside the top 200 with more than 4,800 points.

That position owes much to Thistlecrack (25/1) and Tom Scudamore winning the Doom Bar Sefton Novices' Hurdle at Aintree on Friday.

That win notched up 235 points for our stable, a good chunk of our day's total of 485 points.

A big-priced winner in the Grand National finale could still shake up the final leaderboard.

Green Party seeks to ban commercial horseracing

The Green Party has been holding its conference in Liverpool this weekend. But the party might not be welcome back in the city if the Greens were ever able to implement one of their policies - banning the Grand National at Aintree.

More broadly, the Green Party also seeks to impose an ban on "the exploitation of animals in horse racing ..".

The full policy statement is set out below:


AR425: The Green Party will end the exploitation of animals in horse racing, greyhound racing and all situations where animals are commercially raced. There would be an immediate ban on the use of the whip in horse racing and in jumps racing, and on the use of a non-linear track in greyhound racing. A single regulatory authority would be put in place for each sport, tasked with establishing and enforcing strict welfare standards. There would be a requirement for full traceability of all animals involved in racing  throughout their lives (using microchip technology where applicable) and full publication of injury and  death statistics. These statistics would be used as evidence to close dangerous tracks and ban trainers with poor records. Breeding and import of animals for racing will be tightly regulated and monitored to  improve welfare and prevent over-breeding. There would be regulation on the conditions and times of  transportation of animals used in sport as well as the housing of all animals. A high level of compulsory levy  would be imposed on all betting, to be used solely for welfare improvements.

Crabbie's Grand National 2015 - weights

Crabbie's Grand National, Aintree, 11 April 2015

The weights have been announced for the 2015 running of the Grand National, with its GB£ 1 million total prize fund.

Currently, joint top weights are Carlingford Lough (trainer: John Kiely) and 2014 Gold Cup winner Lord Windermere (Jim Culloty). Both horses have been allocated 11-10.

Oliver Sherwood's Many Clouds is next in the weights with 11-09.

Last year's Grand National winner Pineau De Re (Dr Richard Newland) is given 11-00 to carry this time around.

A maximum of 40 runners can face the starter on 11 April. Shuthefrontdoor (11-02) is already as short as 9/1 favourite for the race.

BHA Head of Handicapping Phil Smith discusses the weights here:

http://www.britishhorseracing.com/bha-head-handicapping-speaks-2015-crabbies-grand-national-weights-lunch/

Crabbie’s Grand National 2014 weights

The weights were announced for the 2014 Crabbie's Grand National this week.

The race takes place at Aintree on Saturday 5 April 2014 and will be a GB£ 1 million race for the first time (total prize money).

Paul Nicholls’ 13-year-old Tidal Bay has been allocated the top weight of 11st 10 lbs, one pound ahead of former Gold Cup winner Long Run (Nicky Henderson).

Last year’s winner Auroras Encore has been retired through injury so cannot defend his crown. But last year’s beaten favourite Sea Bass is entered with a weight of 11st 2 lbs. Teaforthree (third in 2013) is also back with a weight of 10 st 12lbs.

If the race were being run this weekend, given the UK’s current weather, one imagines Tidal Bay (16/1), There’s No Panic (40/1), Storm Survivor (50/1) and Tranquil Sea (100/1) would all be popular for their names.

Full list of weights on the BBC Sports website:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/0/horse-racing/26135845

Crabbie’s Puts Fizz Into Grand National

The Aintree Grand National has unveiled its new sponsor from 2014 in the form of Crabbie’s, maker of a rather tasty alcoholic ginger beer.

Crabbie’s will sponsor the famous race for three years and 2014’s running will have a purse worth GB£ 1 million for the first time.

The sponsor will also see its name attached to the Fox Hunters’ Chase and the Topham Chase at the Aintree Grand National meeting.

John Smith’s had sponsored the race between 2005 and Auroras Encore’s 66/1 win in April 2013.

There were reports that Aintree wanted to avoid a bookmaker sponsoring the race if possible, so Crabbie’s will be seen as a success. This is a strange position to adopt, given how much Ladbrokes did to save the race from extinction in decades gone by.

The role of bookmakers in sponsoring races should not be underestimated. In 2012 the betting sector sponsored over 3,000 races, some 41% of the total. Bookmakers put up nearly GB£ 32 million in prize money in the sponsored races out of a total of GB£ 82 million.

Food and drink companies sponsored just 502 races (7%) and these races contributed GB£ 6.5 million in prize money.

Jockey Club Takes Action On Each-Way Terms

The Jockey Club has revealed that from 1 September 2013 bookmakers at its 15 courses will offer punters “standard and consistent terms” when accepting each-way bets.

Dickon White, Group Betting Director for Jockey Club Racecourses, commented:   "We believe 1st September will be an important day for the on-course betting ring as the introduction of standard each-way terms for punters will give Jockey Club Racecourses’ customers greater confidence they are getting a fair deal when betting each-way at all 15 of our tracks.”

This seems like a good move by the Jockey Club on behalf of punters and has been taken after consultation with bookmakers the various tracks. The only concern might be that some bookmakers choose not to offer each-way betting at all or increase their minimum bet size.

The Jockey Club’s racecourses include: Cheltenham, Newmarket, Aintree and Epsom.

The Jockey Club’s standard each-way terms

Grand National Is A Different Challenge Now

John Francome, the former champion jockey, has been speaking to the Daily Mail (Grand National is a joke now; 13 February 2013) and he believes that the Aintree Grand National is not the challenging race that it once was.

“No disrespect to the winner Auroras Encore, but he is not the best jumper in the world and he would not have won it five years ago.”

“It [the Grand National] used to be a jumping test, but no longer. It is a joke and horses like Grittar, who won in 1982, wouldn't succeed now because they wouldn't be quick enough.”

“In the past you needed a special type of horse to jump round Aintree. They looked at the bigger fences and backed off themselves, yet on Saturday they were going faster as they got closer to the jumps.”

As this blog discussed in its review of the Aintree meeting, it does seem on the evidence of the 2013 running that a new profile of winning horse might emerge with the new course set up. Time will tell.

Aintree Grand National Meeting Review

The Aintree Grand National meeting provided an excellent three days’ racing culminating in a Grand National that seemed to mark a new era in the race’s existence.

Several big name horses were on a ‘reputation recovery’ mission after disappointing at the Cheltenham Festival in March.

On the first day First Lieutenant won the Betfred Bowl Chase, having finished second in the Ryanair Chase at the Festival. Silviniaco Conti had fallen when travelling well in the Betfred Gold Cup and went off favourite for the Betfred Bowl but finished a couple of lengths behind First Lieutenant in third.

Zarkandar, fourth in the Champion Hurdle, won the Aintree Hurdle and beat the Novices’ Hurdle winner The New One in the process.

Special mention must go to Battle Group who won the Silver Cross Handicap Chase on Thursday and then came out again on Saturday to win the John Smith’s Handicap Chase with an equally impressive performance. Two wins round Aintree in the space of just three days is some feat.

Sprinter Sacre showed he is just as good at 2 mile 4 furlongs as at 2 miles when winning the Melling Chase. The Irish contender Flemenstar did not run to his best and was well beaten in third place.

My Tent Or Yours showed the same classy cruising style that he had displayed in the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle at Cheltenham. On this occasion, however, there was no Cheltenham hill to contend with and no Champagne Fever to out battle him.

Similarly, Dynaste had disappointed as favourite in the Jewson Novices’ Chase at Cheltenham but made amends at Aintree in the Mildmay Novices’ Chase.

Saturday’s main event, the Grand National, does look to be a different race now with the changes made to the course and jumps. Jumping mistakes of previous years that might have resulted in a fall or unseating might not be punished as severely judging by the 2013 running of the Grand National.

When searching for a winner in future years it could be less easy to discount the sketchy jumpers because now when they make their customary mistake they could get away with it. A low weight rather than jumping ability or experience of the Aintree fences might take more emphasis in the assessment of the likely winner.

The 2013 Grand National winner, Auroras Encore, trained by Sue Smith and ridden by Ryan Mania, carried 10 stone 3 lbs, which is the lowest winning weight for many years. A trend had been developing for winners carrying 11 stone or more.

Bookies Fail National Stamina Test

Several online sports books experienced some serious technical issued with their websites as they struggled to cope with the surge in demand caused by the Aintree Grand National on Saturday.

Accounts with several online sports betting firms used by the authors of this blog all experienced some technical issues with both their websites and mobile apps at varying points during Saturday.

Some of the problems stated quite early in the afternoon, well before the Grand National itself.

The winner of the Grand National was the 66/1 outsider Auroras Encore trained by Sue Smith. Such a result may even have been a ‘skinner’* on some books.

It will be especially galling for the bookmakers not to have taken as much money as they could because of the technical difficulties. The fancied horses – Sea Bass, On His Own, Teaforthree – were all beaten, with only Teaforthree making the places.

On Twitter there were numerous posts by people complaining about a certain betting website and threatening to take their business elsewhere. It was a difficult threat to carry out because a number of leading betting websites experienced problems at different times.

The inquiries will begin on Monday when senior management returns to the office as to why the technical contingency plans failed to work. It might transpire that some sites were subjected to cyber attacks (though such attacks are rarely acknowledged publicly), although there is no evidence for such activity at present. But it is unusual for such a number of betting sites to suffer outages even on Grand National day. It could simply be that the betting platforms cannot cope with the Grand National day betting surge.

*A ‘skinner’ refers to a horse upon which the bookmaker has taken no money. If it wins, therefore, the bookmaker does not have to pay out any winnings. An excellent result for the bookmaker.

Not All About The National

Aintree’s three-day Grand National meeting has much more to it than the Grand National itself but, unfortunately, most casual viewers will confine themselves to the ‘main event’ on Saturday afternoon.

This year the John Smith’s Melling Chase on Friday 5 April could be the highlight of the whole meeting.

Sprinter Sacre, the impressive winner of the Queen Mother Champion Chase at the Cheltenham Festival in March, will be stepping up in distance to two and a half miles for the first time. If there are any doubts about his ability to stay the extra furlongs they will be seized upon by Cue Card, winner of the Ryanair Chase, a winner over hurdles round this Aintree course and distance earlier in his career.

They will both be taking on the Irish gelding Flemenstar, who was last seen being beaten by Sir Des Champs in the Hennessey Gold Cup at Leopardstown in February. The Melling Chase will be Flemenstar’s first trip across the Irish Sea to race in the UK and, whilst two and half miles is his ideal distance, the drying ground at Aintree could be a concern. His wins have tended to come on softer going.

One horse that will appreciate the firmer ground is Finian’s Rainbow, who won this race in 2012. He is the oldest horse in the race and has finished a well-beaten last on his two runs since then, behind Cue Card and For Non Stop on separate occasions. But both defeats were on ground described as heavy and soft respectively.

Clearly Finian’s Rainbow has to improve on those runs and Sprinter Sacre is rated vastly superior to all of his rivals. But 14/1 about Finian’s Rainbow, a previous winner and getting ground that suits, appeals for an each-way bet.

Elsewhere at Aintree, Silviniaco Conti will attempt to get things back on track in the Betfair Bowl Chase (Thursday 14.30) after falling in the Betfred Gold Cup at Cheltenham last time.

The New One, Grandouet, Zarkandar, and Countrywide Flame line up against each other in the John Smith’s Aintree Hurdle (Thursday 15.05). The last three all contested the Stan James Champion Hurdle at Cheltenham last month with Countrywide Flame finishing third and Zarkandar fourth. It promises to be another hot contest with Festival winner The New One thrown in to the mix for good measure.

The Grand National – A Bookmaker’s Benefit

In a week in which the UK coalition government has introduced reforms and reductions to various public benefits, the country’s bookmakers can rest assured that their big annual benefit event remains intact – the Grand National at Aintree.

If a bookmaker were able to design the perfect race to maximise their profits, then the Grand National would not be far short of what they would create: a handicap steeplechase with 30 fences, 40 runners, over more than four miles. It is no surprise that it was bookmaker Ladbrokes which effectively rescued the Grand National in the 1970s when Aintree racecourse was sold and threatened with closure. The bookmakers probably saw their big annual pay day disappearing with it.

From a bookmaker’s perspective about the only way the Grand National could be improved to fill their coffers even more was if they were able to change the height of the fences or the width of the water jump at the last second just as the horses approached (as perfected by James Bond’s enemy Max Zorin in A View To A Kill).

The bookmakers’ biggest worry is having enough cashiers behind the betting shop counter, enough agents in the call centre to answer the phone, and that their website can hold up to the extra traffic (a test which Coral’s new website failed in the aftermath of its Sprinter Sacre offer at the Cheltenham Festival last month).

For a gambler who takes their betting even moderately seriously the Grand National should really be a non-betting event, however difficult it is to resist getting sucked in. The overround the bookmakers work to is obscenely high. It is one of the few betting markets where every horse can seemingly shorten in price just before the race without any other runner’s price being pushed out to counteract it (thus increasing the overround further still). At the time of writing, with 48 runners still entered the theoretical percentage on the book is 33%.

In addition, however good your form study, the amount of luck needed in running to get round is a lot higher than for an ‘ordinary’ horse race.

The current favourite for the race is Willie Mullins’ On His Own, which fell in the Grand National last year. The gelding has only run once since that day, winning the Boyne Hurdle at Navan in February. But a price of 7/1 is surely too short in a 40 runner handicap, no matter how good the horse or how talented the trainer.

Even if every other runner in the race were a three-legged shire horse I would still think twice about taking 7/1 in a 4 mile+ steeplechase with 30 fences.

The Spring Double

The Spring Double is a phrase given to a two-part bet that seeks to find the winners of both the Lincoln Handicap (held at Doncaster these days) and the Aintree Grand National Chase Handicap in April.

Doncaster’s Lincoln Meeting heralded the traditional start of the new Flat racing season which runs from late March/early April until November. The meeting’s status as the Flat season’s opener has been lessened somewhat by all-weather Flat racing which means racing takes place year-round.

In 2013, however, the notion of a ‘Spring’ double is looking laughable. At the time of writing a band of snow is forecast to be sitting across much of northern England on Friday and Saturday. On Thursday an inspection was called for Saturday morning at Doncaster and plans are already in place to reschedule Saturday’s card for a week later – Saturday 30 March 2013.

Arena Racing Company’s racing director Jim Allen explained: "Should Saturday's meeting be abandoned, which looks increasingly likely, we will host the meeting a week later on Easter Saturday, March 30”.

Kate Miller, PR director for William Hill, which sponsors several of the races on Doncaster’s card said: "It's very difficult to plan for the unthinkable and no one could have anticipated such inclement weather. The William Hill Lincoln and Spring Mile raise the curtain to the turf Flat Season and we're grateful that a contingency plan is in place to save them."

The William Hill Lincoln Handicap is run over the distance of one mile and is open to horses aged 4-years and older. In 2013 the winner will collect GB£ 62,250 in prize money.

The Lincoln Handicap is labelled a Heritage Handicap. Heritage Handicaps are usually (but not always) those races that have a long, established history in the racing calendar. The British Racing Authority (BHA) also stipulated that such races should offer a minimum of GB£ 75,000 in total prize money.

The Ebor (run over 1 mile 6 furlongs in August) at York is a Heritage Handicap, as is the Cambridgeshire at Newmarket (run over 1 mile 1 furlong) in late September.