Investec Epsom Derby Review

There is a Phd thesis to be written about the Investec Derby of 2013, such was the absorbing nature of the race.

One interesting aspect in relation to human psychology is the herd mentality that can influence pre-race analysis. There was a lot of discussion before the race about the favourite Dawn Approach’s stamina and his ability to see out the full Derby distance. But all of the analysis focused on Dawn Approach’s stamina being sapped by a furious pace to be set by Aidan O’Brien’s supposed pacemakers in the race. No-one flipped it round the other way  and put forward the hypothesis that an early, dawdling, muddling pace would cause the 2000 Guineas winner to get frustrated and burn himself out before the mile pole, which is what actually happened.

The racing game is all about opinions. So if you’re going to have one it might as well be your own, right or wrong. It makes it all the sweeter when you’re proved right against the herd.

Was the steady pace set in the early stages another tactical masterstroke by Aidan O’Brien? Everyone assumed the lesser ranked of O’Brien’s team were there to burn off in front to ensure a testing 12 furlongs but controlling the pace of the race does not always have to mean a fast early speed. If it was a deliberate tactic, it worked well in the sense that the favourite was beaten and one of the Ballydoyle team won the Derby.

As an aside, Ruler Of The World’s victory means that the Magnier, Tabor, Smith ownership partnership have now won the last three Derbys. That is some record.

The race itself was a fascinating watch, not least for the antics of Dawn Approach who never settled and displayed a temperament quite unlike the calm demeanour seen at the Qipco 2000 Guineas.

Jockey Ryan Moore had an excellent hour on Saturday afternoon. His ride in the Investec Dash showed patience, strength, innate horsemanship, and a chunk of good fortune to get Duke Of Firenze up to win by a neck. He followed up with the Derby win, making a decisive move to take up the race quite a way from home.

In an age of the bluff, extrovert, celebrity I admire Ryan Moore’s quiet, understated character. He wants to be a jockey rather than a ‘personality’ and he is good at what he does.

Race Day Betting: Investec Derby

Throughout the month of May Dawn Approach shortened in price for the Investec Epsom Derby by doing nothing more than sitting in his stable as his various rivals went through their paces on the racecourse.

Jim Bolger’s colt went even money after the Dante Stakes at York, when no runner immediately impressed with a strong performance in a race that has been a good guide to the Derby.

Dawn Approach is currently 6/4 favourite but that is too short a price for a horse whose stamina over 12 furlongs around Epsom is not assured. His sire New Approach did win the Derby, as did his grand-sire Galileo, but the stamina concerns come more from his dam side, which has more sprinting in the breeding than staying.

In addition, Jim Bolger was not overly enthusiastic about going for the Derby with Dawn Approach earlier in season. The trainer argues that the horse’s class and demeanour will enable him to see out the Derby trip.

Having such a short-priced favourite does mean there are some bigger prices to be had further down the field.

If stamina is the key to Derby success, then the only horse to have competed over the Derby distance is Ruler Of The World. Aidan O’Brien’s charge won the Group 3 Chester Vase and prior to that won a maiden race over 10 furlongs at the Curragh.

It was only a small field at Chester but Ruler Of The World, who is sired by Derby winner Galileo, did still look good. He handled the Chester course and saw out the trip well, with a definite burst of speed in the final half furlong.

Ruler Of The World is available at 8/1 for the Derby with Skybet.