The Qipco Sussex Stakes lived up to the pre-race hype on Wednesday afternoon at Glorious Goodwood as Toronado (11/4) and Dawn Approach (10/11f) went head to head in the final furlong of the Group 1 contest. On this occasion it was Toronado who prevailed by half a length under jockey Richard Hughes, making it 2-1 in favour of Dawn Approach after his wins in the 2000 Guineas (Newmarket) and St James’ Palace Stakes (Royal Ascot).
Hughes’ greater knowledge of the Goodwood track might have been the difference in this instance. He held Toronado up towards the back of the field, whereas Dawn Approach was always up near the front. Dawn Approach was sent for home by Kevin Manning nearly three furlongs from the finish and Hughes was patient, swooping late aboard Toronado to overtake his rival.
It was a beautifully timed move and after the race he described his horse as “very brave and brilliant” to gain a victory that clearly meant a lot to his trainer Richard Hannon.
The racing analysts on Channel 4 noted that Hughes rarely goes for his whip before the 1f marker at Goodwood. The track flattens out at this point and it was suggested that asking a horse for his final burst too early means that it can be unbalanced by the rising ground. By waiting until the track is flatter it might mean the jockey can get the most from his horse when it is properly balanced.
The Sussex Stakes success was the first part of three-timer for Hannon and Hughes on the afternoon. Hughes immediately followed up with an almost identical ride on Toormore (5/4f) in the Veuve Cliquot Vintage Stakes, denying Outstrip (5/1) by a neck. The hat-trick was completed in the final race on the card with Magic City (5/1f).
Cap O’rushes (9/2) was the first Group race runner for new Godolphin trainer Charlie Appleby and the New Approach colt duly gave him his first Group winner under Mickael Barzalona in the Gordon Stakes. The colt is now 10/1 for the St Leger in September with Ladbrokes.
It was a rough race and amazing to see how seven horses can find so much trouble. William Buick encountered several blocked paths aboard favourite Excess Knowledge (7/4f) and failed to get up by just a head after finally getting a clear run to the line all too late.
Showing posts with label Dawn Approach. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Dawn Approach. Show all posts
31 July 2013
18 June 2013
Royal Ascot 2013: Day 1
Declaration Of War (15/2) for Aidan O'Brien won the opening Queen Anne Stakes at Royal Ascot as the favourite Animal Kingdom failed to get involved in the Group 1 contest.
Joseph O'Brien had trouble in running on the winner and had to wait for a gap to emerge in the runners in front of him but got to the lead with relative ease in the end.
Roger Varian's Aljamaaheer (8/1) and John Gosden's Gregorian (16/1) finished second and third.
Bookmakers had been keen to lay Animal Kingdom immediately before the race and his price drifted from even money out to 11/8. He ran keenly early on and then faded quickly as the pace quickened.
Speaking to Channel 4 Racing after the race trainer Graham Motion suggested Animal Kingdom would now be retired.
Winning trainer O'Brien explained his charge had progressed well after the JLT Lockinge Stakes at Newbury (when fifth) and he was delighted with the victory.
Sole Power (8/1) blasted his way to victory in the King's Stand Stakes over five furlongs, beating South African raider Shea Shea (11/4f) by a neck. It was a late, devastating burst of speed from Sole Power in the final furlong that saw him overhaul the favourite, who was well clear in his 'race' of the runners on the far side of the track.
The St James's Palace Stakes went to a photo between Dawn Approach (5/4f) and Toronado (5/1) after the two rivals had an epic battle down the home straight. Dawn Approach prevailed by just a nose from Richard Hannon's colt.
Just as in the Epsom Derby, Dawn Approach pulled hard again in the early stages but Kevin Manning managed to get him under control this time and he battled hard to see off Toronado. There was some serious bumping and interference in the last furlong which affected both horses and Richard Hughes might have felt his horse would have won without it.
Speaking afterwards Sheikh Mohammed said Dawn Approach's win confirmed for him that he is the best mile horse in the world. Trainer Jim Bolger said he knew his colt would not let him down on this occasion.
Aidan O'Brien was victorious again when War Command (20/1) won the Coventry Stakes by a comfortable six length margin from Parbold (16/1) and Sir John Hawkins (6/1). War Command looked to be the stable's third choice of its three runners, at least by betting, but belied his odds to win impressively.
Well Sharp (9/1) denied Lady Cecil's Tiger Cliff (4/1f) a win in the Ascot Stakes. The victory gave Jonjo O'Neill, a trainer more known for his jumps successes, his second Royal Ascot winner.
Johnny Murtagh completed 152/1 double when Extortionist (16/1) won the closing Windsor Castle Stakes, following up on his win earlier aboard Sole Power.
It was a good day for the Irish.
Joseph O'Brien had trouble in running on the winner and had to wait for a gap to emerge in the runners in front of him but got to the lead with relative ease in the end.
Roger Varian's Aljamaaheer (8/1) and John Gosden's Gregorian (16/1) finished second and third.
Bookmakers had been keen to lay Animal Kingdom immediately before the race and his price drifted from even money out to 11/8. He ran keenly early on and then faded quickly as the pace quickened.
Speaking to Channel 4 Racing after the race trainer Graham Motion suggested Animal Kingdom would now be retired.
Winning trainer O'Brien explained his charge had progressed well after the JLT Lockinge Stakes at Newbury (when fifth) and he was delighted with the victory.
Sole Power (8/1) blasted his way to victory in the King's Stand Stakes over five furlongs, beating South African raider Shea Shea (11/4f) by a neck. It was a late, devastating burst of speed from Sole Power in the final furlong that saw him overhaul the favourite, who was well clear in his 'race' of the runners on the far side of the track.
The St James's Palace Stakes went to a photo between Dawn Approach (5/4f) and Toronado (5/1) after the two rivals had an epic battle down the home straight. Dawn Approach prevailed by just a nose from Richard Hannon's colt.
Just as in the Epsom Derby, Dawn Approach pulled hard again in the early stages but Kevin Manning managed to get him under control this time and he battled hard to see off Toronado. There was some serious bumping and interference in the last furlong which affected both horses and Richard Hughes might have felt his horse would have won without it.
Speaking afterwards Sheikh Mohammed said Dawn Approach's win confirmed for him that he is the best mile horse in the world. Trainer Jim Bolger said he knew his colt would not let him down on this occasion.
Aidan O'Brien was victorious again when War Command (20/1) won the Coventry Stakes by a comfortable six length margin from Parbold (16/1) and Sir John Hawkins (6/1). War Command looked to be the stable's third choice of its three runners, at least by betting, but belied his odds to win impressively.
Well Sharp (9/1) denied Lady Cecil's Tiger Cliff (4/1f) a win in the Ascot Stakes. The victory gave Jonjo O'Neill, a trainer more known for his jumps successes, his second Royal Ascot winner.
Johnny Murtagh completed 152/1 double when Extortionist (16/1) won the closing Windsor Castle Stakes, following up on his win earlier aboard Sole Power.
It was a good day for the Irish.
17 June 2013
Racing Preview: Royal Ascot 2013
Royal Ascot 2013 begins with Animal Kingdom, winner of the 2011 Kentucky Derby and the 2013 Dubai World Cup, aiming for victory in the Group 1 Queen Anne Stakes.
Graham Motion’s 5-year-old is as short as even money for the contest, largely as a result of the lack of perceived serious competition amongst his rivals. Paddy Power is offering to pay money back on all losers if Animal Kingdom wins, so one way to play it would be to look for an each-way selection at bigger prices such as Elusive Kate (John Gosden) or Trade Storm (David Simcock). Under Paddy Power’s offer, if Animal Kingdom does win then the win part of the each-way bet will be refunded, whilst you would pick up the place bet winnings if the selection makes second or third place.
Shea Shea, trained by South African Mike De Kock, has travelled over for the King’s Stand Stakes after a successful spell at Meydan, Dubai earlier in the year. Kingsgate Native, Swiss Spirit, Reckless Abandon and Sole Power all contested the Temple Stakes at Haydock last month but the places could be reversed here.
Jim Bolger’s Dawn Approach is 6/4 favourite for the St James’s Palace Stakes as the colt goes back to a mile after his antics in the Epsom Derby last time. He had several of his rivals well behind him in the 2000 Guineas at Newmarket – including Glory Awaits and Toronado – and his nearest rival in the betting, Magician, reportedly had a minor setback last week.
Betting Offers
Betfair: Cash back specials on selection finishing second to Shea Shea in the King’s Stand Stakes
Paddy Power: Money back on all losers if Animal Kingdom wins the Queen Anne Stakes
Skybet: Paying four places on the King’s Stand Stakes and Windsor Castle Stakes
*terms and conditions apply to all offers
Graham Motion’s 5-year-old is as short as even money for the contest, largely as a result of the lack of perceived serious competition amongst his rivals. Paddy Power is offering to pay money back on all losers if Animal Kingdom wins, so one way to play it would be to look for an each-way selection at bigger prices such as Elusive Kate (John Gosden) or Trade Storm (David Simcock). Under Paddy Power’s offer, if Animal Kingdom does win then the win part of the each-way bet will be refunded, whilst you would pick up the place bet winnings if the selection makes second or third place.
Shea Shea, trained by South African Mike De Kock, has travelled over for the King’s Stand Stakes after a successful spell at Meydan, Dubai earlier in the year. Kingsgate Native, Swiss Spirit, Reckless Abandon and Sole Power all contested the Temple Stakes at Haydock last month but the places could be reversed here.
Jim Bolger’s Dawn Approach is 6/4 favourite for the St James’s Palace Stakes as the colt goes back to a mile after his antics in the Epsom Derby last time. He had several of his rivals well behind him in the 2000 Guineas at Newmarket – including Glory Awaits and Toronado – and his nearest rival in the betting, Magician, reportedly had a minor setback last week.
Betting Offers
Betfair: Cash back specials on selection finishing second to Shea Shea in the King’s Stand Stakes
Paddy Power: Money back on all losers if Animal Kingdom wins the Queen Anne Stakes
Skybet: Paying four places on the King’s Stand Stakes and Windsor Castle Stakes
*terms and conditions apply to all offers
06 June 2013
Bookmakers Aren’t Bookmakers Any More
The major bookmakers, particularly their internet betting divisions, are simply marketing operations with betting tacked on. Sports betting is now used as a way to attract customers and then the idea is the get them to play other online games like poker, bingo, and roulette where profit margins are more stable. The notion of making a book, taking an opinion, and laying a bet is very much a secondary concern.
Ahead of last weekend’s Investec Derby the racing press headlines read along the lines of ‘Bookies out to get Dawn Approach’.
Much was made of the fact that Ladbrokes would be offering the top price of 7/4 for Dawn Approach, having been offering just 10/11 earlier in the week.
Brave move by Ladbrokes you might have thought, taking an opinion about a short-priced favourite in the big race. But read on …
The article went on to say that Ladbrokes would be offering this standout price “for an initial 15 minutes from 8.15am to a maximum stake of £50.”
I’m sure Ladbrokes can take a lot of bets in 15 minutes but if they think I’m going to crawl out of bed at 8.15 on a Saturday morning in the hope of getting 7/4 for 15 minutes about a horse that was happily available at 11/8 or 6/4 elsewhere they are a sadly mistaken. I enjoy my sleep more than getting an extra point (not that I wanted to back Dawn Approach in the first place).
Not that the bookmakers care much. The price is more for show and enabling them to shout they are ‘best priced’ or ‘best odds guaranteed’ in their adverts.
Sometimes, however, the marketing exercise backfires.
Ahead of the Queen Mother Champion Chase at Cheltenham in March, Coral were offering even money about Sprinter Sacre, who was generally heavily odds-on and eventually returned 1/4.
The decision to offer even money was not a bookmaking one, it was a marketing decision. Coral took the view that a £1,000,000 liability on Sprinter Sacre was worth it in marketing terms for the coverage they would get and the new customers who would open an account with them. The maximum bet on this offer was £20.
Sprinter Sacre duly won by 19 lengths. Unfortunately for Coral all of its customers then logged in to collect their ‘free money’ after the race and the new website crashed. Any hope that these customers might then recycle some of their winnings in the subsequent races on the card was lost as the site remained down. This must have been particularly frustrating for Coral when the winning prices for the rest of the afternoon were: 33/1, 25/1, and 25/1.
Ahead of last weekend’s Investec Derby the racing press headlines read along the lines of ‘Bookies out to get Dawn Approach’.
Much was made of the fact that Ladbrokes would be offering the top price of 7/4 for Dawn Approach, having been offering just 10/11 earlier in the week.
Brave move by Ladbrokes you might have thought, taking an opinion about a short-priced favourite in the big race. But read on …
The article went on to say that Ladbrokes would be offering this standout price “for an initial 15 minutes from 8.15am to a maximum stake of £50.”
I’m sure Ladbrokes can take a lot of bets in 15 minutes but if they think I’m going to crawl out of bed at 8.15 on a Saturday morning in the hope of getting 7/4 for 15 minutes about a horse that was happily available at 11/8 or 6/4 elsewhere they are a sadly mistaken. I enjoy my sleep more than getting an extra point (not that I wanted to back Dawn Approach in the first place).
Not that the bookmakers care much. The price is more for show and enabling them to shout they are ‘best priced’ or ‘best odds guaranteed’ in their adverts.
Sometimes, however, the marketing exercise backfires.
Ahead of the Queen Mother Champion Chase at Cheltenham in March, Coral were offering even money about Sprinter Sacre, who was generally heavily odds-on and eventually returned 1/4.
The decision to offer even money was not a bookmaking one, it was a marketing decision. Coral took the view that a £1,000,000 liability on Sprinter Sacre was worth it in marketing terms for the coverage they would get and the new customers who would open an account with them. The maximum bet on this offer was £20.
Sprinter Sacre duly won by 19 lengths. Unfortunately for Coral all of its customers then logged in to collect their ‘free money’ after the race and the new website crashed. Any hope that these customers might then recycle some of their winnings in the subsequent races on the card was lost as the site remained down. This must have been particularly frustrating for Coral when the winning prices for the rest of the afternoon were: 33/1, 25/1, and 25/1.
05 June 2013
Why They Ran Badly
The website of the British Horseracing Authority (www.britishhorseracing.com) is a very useful source of information to the racing enthusiast and well worth taking the time to explore.
One page in the ‘Stewards’ Room’ section of the site is called ‘Why they ran badly’ and gives trainers’ and jockeys’ explanations as to why a particular horse underperformed in a race.
Sometimes the explanations can be helpful for future betting insight. For example the trainer might say the horse “was unsuited by the good, good/firm in places going” or “the trainer reported the gelding had a breathing problem”, or “bled from the nose”.
If you have watched the race in question then sometimes the reason for the poor run is obvious. The report for Dawn Approach in the Investec Derby reads “the colt ran too free”, which was visible to all spectators.
Other times the explanations offered are tautological – the horse ran badly because it ran badly. Only, it is dressed up in racing speak e.g. “the gelding was never travelling”; “the filly stopped quickly”.
You can also review all the official photo finishes on the site to see how narrowly your selection was beaten.
The blogs written by the BHA handicapping team are also worth perusing. The handicappers write about their views on particular races, the performance of horses, and why they have raised (or not) a particular runner in the handicap.
One page in the ‘Stewards’ Room’ section of the site is called ‘Why they ran badly’ and gives trainers’ and jockeys’ explanations as to why a particular horse underperformed in a race.
Sometimes the explanations can be helpful for future betting insight. For example the trainer might say the horse “was unsuited by the good, good/firm in places going” or “the trainer reported the gelding had a breathing problem”, or “bled from the nose”.
If you have watched the race in question then sometimes the reason for the poor run is obvious. The report for Dawn Approach in the Investec Derby reads “the colt ran too free”, which was visible to all spectators.
Other times the explanations offered are tautological – the horse ran badly because it ran badly. Only, it is dressed up in racing speak e.g. “the gelding was never travelling”; “the filly stopped quickly”.
You can also review all the official photo finishes on the site to see how narrowly your selection was beaten.
The blogs written by the BHA handicapping team are also worth perusing. The handicappers write about their views on particular races, the performance of horses, and why they have raised (or not) a particular runner in the handicap.
03 June 2013
Investec Epsom Derby Review
There is a Phd thesis to be written about the Investec Derby of 2013, such was the absorbing nature of the race.
One interesting aspect in relation to human psychology is the herd mentality that can influence pre-race analysis. There was a lot of discussion before the race about the favourite Dawn Approach’s stamina and his ability to see out the full Derby distance. But all of the analysis focused on Dawn Approach’s stamina being sapped by a furious pace to be set by Aidan O’Brien’s supposed pacemakers in the race. No-one flipped it round the other way and put forward the hypothesis that an early, dawdling, muddling pace would cause the 2000 Guineas winner to get frustrated and burn himself out before the mile pole, which is what actually happened.
The racing game is all about opinions. So if you’re going to have one it might as well be your own, right or wrong. It makes it all the sweeter when you’re proved right against the herd.
Was the steady pace set in the early stages another tactical masterstroke by Aidan O’Brien? Everyone assumed the lesser ranked of O’Brien’s team were there to burn off in front to ensure a testing 12 furlongs but controlling the pace of the race does not always have to mean a fast early speed. If it was a deliberate tactic, it worked well in the sense that the favourite was beaten and one of the Ballydoyle team won the Derby.
As an aside, Ruler Of The World’s victory means that the Magnier, Tabor, Smith ownership partnership have now won the last three Derbys. That is some record.
The race itself was a fascinating watch, not least for the antics of Dawn Approach who never settled and displayed a temperament quite unlike the calm demeanour seen at the Qipco 2000 Guineas.
Jockey Ryan Moore had an excellent hour on Saturday afternoon. His ride in the Investec Dash showed patience, strength, innate horsemanship, and a chunk of good fortune to get Duke Of Firenze up to win by a neck. He followed up with the Derby win, making a decisive move to take up the race quite a way from home.
In an age of the bluff, extrovert, celebrity I admire Ryan Moore’s quiet, understated character. He wants to be a jockey rather than a ‘personality’ and he is good at what he does.
One interesting aspect in relation to human psychology is the herd mentality that can influence pre-race analysis. There was a lot of discussion before the race about the favourite Dawn Approach’s stamina and his ability to see out the full Derby distance. But all of the analysis focused on Dawn Approach’s stamina being sapped by a furious pace to be set by Aidan O’Brien’s supposed pacemakers in the race. No-one flipped it round the other way and put forward the hypothesis that an early, dawdling, muddling pace would cause the 2000 Guineas winner to get frustrated and burn himself out before the mile pole, which is what actually happened.
The racing game is all about opinions. So if you’re going to have one it might as well be your own, right or wrong. It makes it all the sweeter when you’re proved right against the herd.
Was the steady pace set in the early stages another tactical masterstroke by Aidan O’Brien? Everyone assumed the lesser ranked of O’Brien’s team were there to burn off in front to ensure a testing 12 furlongs but controlling the pace of the race does not always have to mean a fast early speed. If it was a deliberate tactic, it worked well in the sense that the favourite was beaten and one of the Ballydoyle team won the Derby.
As an aside, Ruler Of The World’s victory means that the Magnier, Tabor, Smith ownership partnership have now won the last three Derbys. That is some record.
The race itself was a fascinating watch, not least for the antics of Dawn Approach who never settled and displayed a temperament quite unlike the calm demeanour seen at the Qipco 2000 Guineas.
Jockey Ryan Moore had an excellent hour on Saturday afternoon. His ride in the Investec Dash showed patience, strength, innate horsemanship, and a chunk of good fortune to get Duke Of Firenze up to win by a neck. He followed up with the Derby win, making a decisive move to take up the race quite a way from home.
In an age of the bluff, extrovert, celebrity I admire Ryan Moore’s quiet, understated character. He wants to be a jockey rather than a ‘personality’ and he is good at what he does.
01 June 2013
Race Day Betting: Investec Derby
Throughout the month of May Dawn Approach shortened in price for the Investec Epsom Derby by doing nothing more than sitting in his stable as his various rivals went through their paces on the racecourse.
Jim Bolger’s colt went even money after the Dante Stakes at York, when no runner immediately impressed with a strong performance in a race that has been a good guide to the Derby.
Dawn Approach is currently 6/4 favourite but that is too short a price for a horse whose stamina over 12 furlongs around Epsom is not assured. His sire New Approach did win the Derby, as did his grand-sire Galileo, but the stamina concerns come more from his dam side, which has more sprinting in the breeding than staying.
In addition, Jim Bolger was not overly enthusiastic about going for the Derby with Dawn Approach earlier in season. The trainer argues that the horse’s class and demeanour will enable him to see out the Derby trip.
Having such a short-priced favourite does mean there are some bigger prices to be had further down the field.
If stamina is the key to Derby success, then the only horse to have competed over the Derby distance is Ruler Of The World. Aidan O’Brien’s charge won the Group 3 Chester Vase and prior to that won a maiden race over 10 furlongs at the Curragh.
It was only a small field at Chester but Ruler Of The World, who is sired by Derby winner Galileo, did still look good. He handled the Chester course and saw out the trip well, with a definite burst of speed in the final half furlong.
Ruler Of The World is available at 8/1 for the Derby with Skybet.
Jim Bolger’s colt went even money after the Dante Stakes at York, when no runner immediately impressed with a strong performance in a race that has been a good guide to the Derby.
Dawn Approach is currently 6/4 favourite but that is too short a price for a horse whose stamina over 12 furlongs around Epsom is not assured. His sire New Approach did win the Derby, as did his grand-sire Galileo, but the stamina concerns come more from his dam side, which has more sprinting in the breeding than staying.
In addition, Jim Bolger was not overly enthusiastic about going for the Derby with Dawn Approach earlier in season. The trainer argues that the horse’s class and demeanour will enable him to see out the Derby trip.
Having such a short-priced favourite does mean there are some bigger prices to be had further down the field.
If stamina is the key to Derby success, then the only horse to have competed over the Derby distance is Ruler Of The World. Aidan O’Brien’s charge won the Group 3 Chester Vase and prior to that won a maiden race over 10 furlongs at the Curragh.
It was only a small field at Chester but Ruler Of The World, who is sired by Derby winner Galileo, did still look good. He handled the Chester course and saw out the trip well, with a definite burst of speed in the final half furlong.
Ruler Of The World is available at 8/1 for the Derby with Skybet.
31 May 2013
Racing Preview: Epsom Derby
The Investec Derby is a Group 1 Classic race run over 1 mile 4 furlongs round Epsom. In 2013 the winner will collect just over £780,000 in prize money.
Since 2001 trainers Aidan O’Brien and Sir Michael Stoute have each won three Derbys, the former most recently in 2012 with Camelot (8/13 f).
One of the most startling images or recent Derby history is that of jockey Mickael Barzalona standing up in the saddle and celebrating victory on Pour Moi a few strides before he passed the winning post. The winning distance was a head!
Two former Derby winners dominate the 2013 renewal through their offspring: Galileo (2001) and New Approach (2008). They have sired seven of the 12 runners in the race.
Throughout the month of May Dawn Approach has been like the prize gladiator just waiting in the wings as his rivals fight it out in the arena. Dawn Approach won the 2000 Guineas impressively early in the month and it was then up to his rivals to match his standard in the various trials races. From a betting perspective none of the rivals impressed the bookmakers, as Dawn Approach shortened in price without leaving his stable. The fact that the likes of Telescope were ruled out of the race also compounded this effect.
The Irish trainers have a strong hand in the 2013 Derby. As well as the strong favourite in Dawn Approach (Jim Bolger), Aidan O’Brien saddles five runners and David Wachman has interesting outsider Galileo Rock.
Libertarian, winner of the Dante Stakes at York, represents the main contender for the home contingent.
Each year, and 2013 is no different, the major Derby imponderables are whether or not a particular runner will handle the Epsom track and will it stay the distance?
Since 2001 trainers Aidan O’Brien and Sir Michael Stoute have each won three Derbys, the former most recently in 2012 with Camelot (8/13 f).
One of the most startling images or recent Derby history is that of jockey Mickael Barzalona standing up in the saddle and celebrating victory on Pour Moi a few strides before he passed the winning post. The winning distance was a head!
Two former Derby winners dominate the 2013 renewal through their offspring: Galileo (2001) and New Approach (2008). They have sired seven of the 12 runners in the race.
Throughout the month of May Dawn Approach has been like the prize gladiator just waiting in the wings as his rivals fight it out in the arena. Dawn Approach won the 2000 Guineas impressively early in the month and it was then up to his rivals to match his standard in the various trials races. From a betting perspective none of the rivals impressed the bookmakers, as Dawn Approach shortened in price without leaving his stable. The fact that the likes of Telescope were ruled out of the race also compounded this effect.
The Irish trainers have a strong hand in the 2013 Derby. As well as the strong favourite in Dawn Approach (Jim Bolger), Aidan O’Brien saddles five runners and David Wachman has interesting outsider Galileo Rock.
Libertarian, winner of the Dante Stakes at York, represents the main contender for the home contingent.
Each year, and 2013 is no different, the major Derby imponderables are whether or not a particular runner will handle the Epsom track and will it stay the distance?
12 May 2013
O’Brien Dominates Derby Trials
In the months before the Epsom Derby, which takes place over 1 mile 4 furlongs, 10 yards on Saturday 1 June 2013 there is a number of races which act as trials for the Classic race and help sort out which horses may or may not take their place in the starting stalls at Epsom.
In 2013 the recognised trials races have been dominated by Irish trainer Aidan O’Brien’s Derby contenders.
In mid-April Battle Of Marengo won the Ballysax Stakes over 1 mile 2 furlongs at Leopardstown and O’Brien has subsequently won the Chester Vase (1m 4f 110y) with Ruler Of The World, the Dee Stakes (Chester) (1m 2f 110y with Magician, and the Lingfield Derby Trial Stakes (1m 4f) with Nevis.
Later this afternoon Battle Of Marengo will contest the Derrinstown Stud Derby Trial Stakes at Leopardstown, which will reveal more about his Derby credentials.
Still to come next week is a key Derby trial in the form of the Dante Stakes at York (1m 2f 110y).
Of course, winning the trials does not mean you win the Derby and there is certainly a question about the quality of competition in the trial races and the relevance of Derby trials in the modern racing calendar.
Despite all of these winners for Aidan O’Brien, Jim Bolger’s Dawn Approach, winner of May’s 2000 Guineas at Newmarket, remains 13/8 favourite with William Hill for the Epsom Derby.
In 2013 the recognised trials races have been dominated by Irish trainer Aidan O’Brien’s Derby contenders.
In mid-April Battle Of Marengo won the Ballysax Stakes over 1 mile 2 furlongs at Leopardstown and O’Brien has subsequently won the Chester Vase (1m 4f 110y) with Ruler Of The World, the Dee Stakes (Chester) (1m 2f 110y with Magician, and the Lingfield Derby Trial Stakes (1m 4f) with Nevis.
Later this afternoon Battle Of Marengo will contest the Derrinstown Stud Derby Trial Stakes at Leopardstown, which will reveal more about his Derby credentials.
Still to come next week is a key Derby trial in the form of the Dante Stakes at York (1m 2f 110y).
Of course, winning the trials does not mean you win the Derby and there is certainly a question about the quality of competition in the trial races and the relevance of Derby trials in the modern racing calendar.
Despite all of these winners for Aidan O’Brien, Jim Bolger’s Dawn Approach, winner of May’s 2000 Guineas at Newmarket, remains 13/8 favourite with William Hill for the Epsom Derby.
06 May 2013
Newmarket Qipco Guineas Meeting Review
The firm ground ensured some fast times were recorded by several winners over the two days of the Qipco Guineas meeting at Newmarket’s Rowley Mile course.
Sole Power (7/2 jf), trained by Edward Lynam, powered to a time of 57 seconds for the five furlongs in the Group 3 Pearl Bloodstock Palace House Stakes.
Kevin Ryan’s Hamza (5/1 jf) was simply too quick for his rivals in the six furlong Harbour Watch Handicap and he made every yard of the running under Neil Callan to win by 2 ¾ lengths in a time of 1 minute 10 seconds.
The trainer was also delighted by the run of Glory Awaits, who finished second at 150/1 in the Qipco 2000 Guineas.
There was a celestial connection in the names of the Guineas winners with Dawn Approach (Jim Bolger) winning the 2000 Guineas and Sky Lantern (Richard Hannon) the 1000 Guineas. Sky Lantern’s victory gave jockey Richard Hughes with his first British Classic winner.
Aidan O’Brien’s Moth finished third in the 1000 Guineas, showing on the racecourse some of the potential connections knew she had. As a result, the Galileo filly is now just 7/2 for the Epsom Oaks at the end of May.
Mark Johnston’s Windhoek looks a fine horse and is now unbeaten in three races after taking the Listed Qatar Racing Newmarket Stakes. The colt was successful in the 200,000 Tattersalls Millions 3-Y-O Trophy over the same course and distance in April. The colt holds an entry for the Betfred Dante Stakes at York in a couple of weeks, as well as for the King Edward VII Stakes (Royal Ascot) and Sandown's Coral-Eclipse in July.
The appropriately named Talent won the Pretty Polly Stakes for fillies. Ralph Beckett’s filly is sired by New Approach and could certainly be one to follow during the season. She holds entries in the Epsom Oaks (Group 1), the Ribblesdale Stakes (Group 2 ) at Royal Ascot, and the Irish Oaks (Group 1).
Sole Power (7/2 jf), trained by Edward Lynam, powered to a time of 57 seconds for the five furlongs in the Group 3 Pearl Bloodstock Palace House Stakes.
Kevin Ryan’s Hamza (5/1 jf) was simply too quick for his rivals in the six furlong Harbour Watch Handicap and he made every yard of the running under Neil Callan to win by 2 ¾ lengths in a time of 1 minute 10 seconds.
The trainer was also delighted by the run of Glory Awaits, who finished second at 150/1 in the Qipco 2000 Guineas.
There was a celestial connection in the names of the Guineas winners with Dawn Approach (Jim Bolger) winning the 2000 Guineas and Sky Lantern (Richard Hannon) the 1000 Guineas. Sky Lantern’s victory gave jockey Richard Hughes with his first British Classic winner.
Aidan O’Brien’s Moth finished third in the 1000 Guineas, showing on the racecourse some of the potential connections knew she had. As a result, the Galileo filly is now just 7/2 for the Epsom Oaks at the end of May.
Mark Johnston’s Windhoek looks a fine horse and is now unbeaten in three races after taking the Listed Qatar Racing Newmarket Stakes. The colt was successful in the 200,000 Tattersalls Millions 3-Y-O Trophy over the same course and distance in April. The colt holds an entry for the Betfred Dante Stakes at York in a couple of weeks, as well as for the King Edward VII Stakes (Royal Ascot) and Sandown's Coral-Eclipse in July.
The appropriately named Talent won the Pretty Polly Stakes for fillies. Ralph Beckett’s filly is sired by New Approach and could certainly be one to follow during the season. She holds entries in the Epsom Oaks (Group 1), the Ribblesdale Stakes (Group 2 ) at Royal Ascot, and the Irish Oaks (Group 1).
05 May 2013
Race Day Betting: Qipco 1000 Guineas
French fillies have quite a good record in the 1000 Guineas in recent years and the selection for this year’s contest is Mikel Delzangles’ What A Name.
There is actually a line of form to yesterday’s 2000 Guineas winner Dawn Approach with the filly. Dawn Approach beat Olympic Glory in last season’s Coventry Stakes by ¾ of a length. Olympic Glory subsequently beat What A Name by one-and-a-quarter lengths in the Prix Jean-Luc Lagardere (formerly the Grand Criterium). That looks a good performance for a filly taking on the colts.
What A Name has also had a winning preparation race in early April. She is a price of 9/2 with Skybet.
The each-way selection is Richard Hannon’s Sky Lantern (9/1 with Skybet). Back on equal weight terms with Hot Snap and with firmer ground than she had in the Nell Gwyn Stakes last month, she should make the places.
There is actually a line of form to yesterday’s 2000 Guineas winner Dawn Approach with the filly. Dawn Approach beat Olympic Glory in last season’s Coventry Stakes by ¾ of a length. Olympic Glory subsequently beat What A Name by one-and-a-quarter lengths in the Prix Jean-Luc Lagardere (formerly the Grand Criterium). That looks a good performance for a filly taking on the colts.
What A Name has also had a winning preparation race in early April. She is a price of 9/2 with Skybet.
The each-way selection is Richard Hannon’s Sky Lantern (9/1 with Skybet). Back on equal weight terms with Hot Snap and with firmer ground than she had in the Nell Gwyn Stakes last month, she should make the places.
04 May 2013
Dawn Approach Wins Qipco 2000 Guineas
Dawn Approach gave Godolphin some good news after weeks of bad headlines by winning the 205th running of the Qipco 2000 Guineas at Newmarket.
Glory Awaits and Leitir Mor blasted out of the gates and took the field along at a good pace with Toronado and Dawn Approach behind the two front runners.
The two market leaders took it up as they entered the dip but Toronado could not find the turn of foot he had shown at the Craven Meeting. Dawn Approach surged well clear of the field to win by five lengths.
Glory Awaits clung on to second place at 150/1 under Jamie Spencer, with Van Der Neer coming through for third (20/1) for the Hannon team under William Buick. Toronado finished in fourth place (11/4).
Speaking on Channel 4 Racing afterwards Richard Hannon Jnr said of Toronado's performance that it was "very disappointing" and that the colt "didn't come home as we'd hoped".
Jim Bolger, meanwhile, said of any decision to go for the Epsom Derby with Dawn Approach that they would "sleep on it" and see how the winner was after his exertions in the 2000 Guineas. But the trainer added that he would be "happy to go for it [the Derby]" if that is what Sheikh Mohammed wanted.
Glory Awaits and Leitir Mor blasted out of the gates and took the field along at a good pace with Toronado and Dawn Approach behind the two front runners.
The two market leaders took it up as they entered the dip but Toronado could not find the turn of foot he had shown at the Craven Meeting. Dawn Approach surged well clear of the field to win by five lengths.
Glory Awaits clung on to second place at 150/1 under Jamie Spencer, with Van Der Neer coming through for third (20/1) for the Hannon team under William Buick. Toronado finished in fourth place (11/4).
Speaking on Channel 4 Racing afterwards Richard Hannon Jnr said of Toronado's performance that it was "very disappointing" and that the colt "didn't come home as we'd hoped".
Jim Bolger, meanwhile, said of any decision to go for the Epsom Derby with Dawn Approach that they would "sleep on it" and see how the winner was after his exertions in the 2000 Guineas. But the trainer added that he would be "happy to go for it [the Derby]" if that is what Sheikh Mohammed wanted.
Race Day Betting: Qipco 2000 Guineas
The betting suggests the first Classic of the season is a match between Dawn Approach (7/4f with William Hill) and Toronado (2/1).
Several of today’s runners found themselves behind Dawn Approach in races last season, be it the Coventry Stakes at Royal Ascot or the Dewhurst Stakes at Newmarket. If all those horses – Dawn Approach, Cristoforo Colombo, George Vancouver, and Leitir Mor – have improved from 2yo to 3yo to a similar level then it is hard to argue that any will reverse the form with Dawn Approach.
There is no doubting what Dawn Approach has done on the racecourse as a two-year-old but he has been described as a ‘lazy’ horse and there has been no opportunity to see him run on the racecourse as a three-year-old. As such, some elements of his prospects for the 2000 Guineas have to be taken on trust as a punter. In return for that ‘blind’ trust I want a bigger price than the 7/4 that is available.
So, the selection is Toronado for Richard Hannon. The colt’s win in the Craven Stakes was impressive, regardless of the quality of the horses he beat that day. It showed a horse that could handle both course and distance as well as quicken at different stages of the race. It provides me with more recent evidence of ability as a three-year-old than I have for Dawn Approach and I get a bigger price for it too.
The Hannon stable has been in good form in general since the start of the season and connections are confident about the chances of their runner.
Richard Hannon Jnr said on the stable’s website: “Toronado did his last proper piece of work last Sunday and goes to Newmarket in the form of his life. We always felt that he was more one for the Derby than the Guineas, but this spring he has been showing much speed in the mornings than he did last year, so, while Dawn Approach is obviously a very good horse, we feel that we have a solid chance of beating him.”
2000 Guineas Betting Offer
Ladbrokes is offering a refund of your stake as a free bet (up to £25) if Dawn Approach wins the 2000 Guineas.
Ladbrokes have Dawn Approach at 5/4 and Toronado at 2/1
Several of today’s runners found themselves behind Dawn Approach in races last season, be it the Coventry Stakes at Royal Ascot or the Dewhurst Stakes at Newmarket. If all those horses – Dawn Approach, Cristoforo Colombo, George Vancouver, and Leitir Mor – have improved from 2yo to 3yo to a similar level then it is hard to argue that any will reverse the form with Dawn Approach.
There is no doubting what Dawn Approach has done on the racecourse as a two-year-old but he has been described as a ‘lazy’ horse and there has been no opportunity to see him run on the racecourse as a three-year-old. As such, some elements of his prospects for the 2000 Guineas have to be taken on trust as a punter. In return for that ‘blind’ trust I want a bigger price than the 7/4 that is available.
So, the selection is Toronado for Richard Hannon. The colt’s win in the Craven Stakes was impressive, regardless of the quality of the horses he beat that day. It showed a horse that could handle both course and distance as well as quicken at different stages of the race. It provides me with more recent evidence of ability as a three-year-old than I have for Dawn Approach and I get a bigger price for it too.
The Hannon stable has been in good form in general since the start of the season and connections are confident about the chances of their runner.
Richard Hannon Jnr said on the stable’s website: “Toronado did his last proper piece of work last Sunday and goes to Newmarket in the form of his life. We always felt that he was more one for the Derby than the Guineas, but this spring he has been showing much speed in the mornings than he did last year, so, while Dawn Approach is obviously a very good horse, we feel that we have a solid chance of beating him.”
2000 Guineas Betting Offer
Ladbrokes is offering a refund of your stake as a free bet (up to £25) if Dawn Approach wins the 2000 Guineas.
Ladbrokes have Dawn Approach at 5/4 and Toronado at 2/1
03 May 2013
Racing Preview: Qipco 2000 Guineas
The Qipco 2000 Guineas is the first Classic race in the British Flat season. It is run in early May over a distance of a mile (8 furlongs) at Newmarket’s Rowley Mile course. The race is open to three-year olds, both colts and fillies. The race title is derived from the approximate value of all the entry fees for the first running of the race.
Camelot and Frankel have been two recent short-priced winners but for a few years before that the race had a habit of throwing up some longer priced winners: Makfi (33/1), Sea The Stars (8/1), Henrythenavigator (11/1), and Cockney Rebel (25/1). Indeed, there have been several short-priced favourites that have been beaten in the race over the years, such as: Xaar (1998), New Approach (2008), St Nicholas Abbey (2010).
Interestingly, the favourite for the 2013 contest is Dawn Approach, whose sire is New Approach, who finished second by a nose to Henrythenavigator in 2008 when the 11/8 favourite.
2000 Guineas: Leading Contenders
Dawn Approach: Jim Bolger’s colt is unbeaten in six races, including wins in the 2012 Coventry Stakes at Royal Ascot (beating Cristoforo Colombo). He was last seen on the racecourse at Newmarket in October 2012 when winning the Dewhurst Stakes.
The trainer has said Dawn Approach has thrived over the winter and there has been no hitch in his preparation for the 2000 Guineas. For this reason, the Bolger decided that no preparatory race was required and his colt will go straight to the Classic.
Dawn Approach has never raced over a mile and has been described as a ‘lazy’ horse. But the horse has shown the expected physical improvement from 2yo to 3yo and may even improve for running over a mile.
Toronado: Like Dawn Approach, Toronado is unbeaten on the racecourse. Richard Hannon’s colt was an impressive winner of the Craven Stakes over course and distance in April. The stable also have a good guide to his relative merits versus Dawn Approach because the stable’s Olympic Glory was second to Dawn Approach in the Coventry Stakes at last year’s Royal Ascot meeting.
The Craven Stakes performance showed that Toronado can handle the dip in the Rowley Mile course and he showed good speed.
Mars: Very little to know about Mars, other than he is trained by Aidan O’Brien, who has trained the winner of the 2000 Guineas five times since the year 2000, including in Camelot in 2012. Mars’ only racecourse form is a four-length win in a seven-furlong maiden at Dundalk in July 2012. The trainer still has a couple of other entries in the race – Cristoforo Colombo, George Vancouver – so it is difficult to know which horse is the stable’s best chance.
Cristoforo Colombo: Another Aidan O’Brien challenger and third behind Dawn Approach in last season’s Coventry Stakes. Has not raced beyond six furlongs in his career but is sired by 2000 Guineas winner Henrythenavigator. Finished fourth in last Octobers Middle Park stakes at Newmarket behind another 2000 Guineas contender Moohaajim (second).
Camelot and Frankel have been two recent short-priced winners but for a few years before that the race had a habit of throwing up some longer priced winners: Makfi (33/1), Sea The Stars (8/1), Henrythenavigator (11/1), and Cockney Rebel (25/1). Indeed, there have been several short-priced favourites that have been beaten in the race over the years, such as: Xaar (1998), New Approach (2008), St Nicholas Abbey (2010).
Interestingly, the favourite for the 2013 contest is Dawn Approach, whose sire is New Approach, who finished second by a nose to Henrythenavigator in 2008 when the 11/8 favourite.
2000 Guineas: Leading Contenders
Dawn Approach: Jim Bolger’s colt is unbeaten in six races, including wins in the 2012 Coventry Stakes at Royal Ascot (beating Cristoforo Colombo). He was last seen on the racecourse at Newmarket in October 2012 when winning the Dewhurst Stakes.
The trainer has said Dawn Approach has thrived over the winter and there has been no hitch in his preparation for the 2000 Guineas. For this reason, the Bolger decided that no preparatory race was required and his colt will go straight to the Classic.
Dawn Approach has never raced over a mile and has been described as a ‘lazy’ horse. But the horse has shown the expected physical improvement from 2yo to 3yo and may even improve for running over a mile.
Toronado: Like Dawn Approach, Toronado is unbeaten on the racecourse. Richard Hannon’s colt was an impressive winner of the Craven Stakes over course and distance in April. The stable also have a good guide to his relative merits versus Dawn Approach because the stable’s Olympic Glory was second to Dawn Approach in the Coventry Stakes at last year’s Royal Ascot meeting.
The Craven Stakes performance showed that Toronado can handle the dip in the Rowley Mile course and he showed good speed.
Mars: Very little to know about Mars, other than he is trained by Aidan O’Brien, who has trained the winner of the 2000 Guineas five times since the year 2000, including in Camelot in 2012. Mars’ only racecourse form is a four-length win in a seven-furlong maiden at Dundalk in July 2012. The trainer still has a couple of other entries in the race – Cristoforo Colombo, George Vancouver – so it is difficult to know which horse is the stable’s best chance.
Cristoforo Colombo: Another Aidan O’Brien challenger and third behind Dawn Approach in last season’s Coventry Stakes. Has not raced beyond six furlongs in his career but is sired by 2000 Guineas winner Henrythenavigator. Finished fourth in last Octobers Middle Park stakes at Newmarket behind another 2000 Guineas contender Moohaajim (second).
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