The betting suggests the first Classic of the season is a match between Dawn Approach (7/4f with William Hill) and Toronado (2/1).
Several of today’s runners found themselves behind Dawn Approach in races last season, be it the Coventry Stakes at Royal Ascot or the Dewhurst Stakes at Newmarket. If all those horses – Dawn Approach, Cristoforo Colombo, George Vancouver, and Leitir Mor – have improved from 2yo to 3yo to a similar level then it is hard to argue that any will reverse the form with Dawn Approach.
There is no doubting what Dawn Approach has done on the racecourse as a two-year-old but he has been described as a ‘lazy’ horse and there has been no opportunity to see him run on the racecourse as a three-year-old. As such, some elements of his prospects for the 2000 Guineas have to be taken on trust as a punter. In return for that ‘blind’ trust I want a bigger price than the 7/4 that is available.
So, the selection is Toronado for Richard Hannon. The colt’s win in the Craven Stakes was impressive, regardless of the quality of the horses he beat that day. It showed a horse that could handle both course and distance as well as quicken at different stages of the race. It provides me with more recent evidence of ability as a three-year-old than I have for Dawn Approach and I get a bigger price for it too.
The Hannon stable has been in good form in general since the start of the season and connections are confident about the chances of their runner.
Richard Hannon Jnr said on the stable’s website: “Toronado did his last proper piece of work last Sunday and goes to Newmarket in the form of his life. We always felt that he was more one for the Derby than the Guineas, but this spring he has been showing much speed in the mornings than he did last year, so, while Dawn Approach is obviously a very good horse, we feel that we have a solid chance of beating him.”
2000 Guineas Betting Offer
Ladbrokes is offering a refund of your stake as a free bet (up to £25) if Dawn Approach wins the 2000 Guineas.
Ladbrokes have Dawn Approach at 5/4 and Toronado at 2/1
