03 May 2013

Racing Preview: Qipco 2000 Guineas

The Qipco 2000 Guineas is the first Classic race in the British Flat season. It is run in early May over a distance of a mile (8 furlongs) at Newmarket’s Rowley Mile course. The race is open to three-year olds, both colts and fillies. The race title is derived from the approximate value of all the entry fees for the first running of the race.

Camelot and Frankel have been two recent short-priced winners but for a few years before that the race had a habit of throwing up some longer priced winners: Makfi (33/1), Sea The Stars (8/1), Henrythenavigator (11/1), and Cockney Rebel (25/1). Indeed, there have been several short-priced favourites that have been beaten in the race over the years, such as: Xaar (1998), New Approach (2008), St Nicholas Abbey (2010).

Interestingly, the favourite for the 2013 contest is Dawn Approach, whose sire is New Approach, who finished second by a nose to Henrythenavigator in 2008 when the 11/8 favourite.

2000 Guineas: Leading Contenders

Dawn Approach: Jim Bolger’s colt is unbeaten in six races, including wins in the 2012 Coventry Stakes at Royal Ascot (beating Cristoforo Colombo). He was last seen on the racecourse at Newmarket in October 2012 when winning the Dewhurst Stakes.

The trainer has said Dawn Approach has thrived over the winter and there has been no hitch in his preparation for the 2000 Guineas. For this reason, the Bolger decided that no preparatory race was required and his colt will go straight to the Classic.

Dawn Approach has never raced over a mile and has been described as a ‘lazy’ horse. But the horse has shown the expected physical improvement from 2yo to 3yo and may even improve for running over a mile.

Toronado: Like Dawn Approach, Toronado is unbeaten on the racecourse. Richard Hannon’s colt was an impressive winner of the Craven Stakes over course and distance in April. The stable also have a good guide to his relative merits versus Dawn Approach because the stable’s Olympic Glory was second to Dawn Approach in the Coventry Stakes at last year’s Royal Ascot meeting.

The Craven Stakes performance showed that Toronado can handle the dip in the Rowley Mile course and he showed good speed.

Mars: Very little to know about Mars, other than he is trained by Aidan O’Brien, who has trained the winner of the 2000 Guineas five times since the year 2000, including in Camelot in 2012. Mars’ only racecourse form is a four-length win in a seven-furlong maiden at Dundalk in July 2012. The trainer still has a couple of other entries in the race – Cristoforo Colombo, George Vancouver – so it is difficult to know which horse is the stable’s best chance.

Cristoforo Colombo: Another Aidan O’Brien challenger and third behind Dawn Approach in last season’s Coventry Stakes. Has not raced beyond six furlongs in his career but is sired by 2000 Guineas winner Henrythenavigator. Finished fourth in last Octobers Middle Park stakes at Newmarket behind another 2000 Guineas contender Moohaajim (second).