O’Brien Dominates Derby Trials

In the months before the Epsom Derby, which takes place over 1 mile 4 furlongs, 10 yards on Saturday 1 June 2013 there is a number of races which act as trials for the Classic race and help sort out which horses may or may not take their place in the starting stalls at Epsom.

In 2013 the recognised trials races have been dominated by Irish trainer Aidan O’Brien’s Derby contenders.

In mid-April Battle Of Marengo won the Ballysax Stakes over 1 mile 2 furlongs at Leopardstown and O’Brien has subsequently won the Chester Vase (1m 4f 110y) with Ruler Of The World, the Dee Stakes (Chester) (1m 2f 110y with Magician, and the Lingfield Derby Trial Stakes (1m 4f) with Nevis.

Later this afternoon Battle Of Marengo will contest the Derrinstown Stud Derby Trial Stakes at Leopardstown, which will reveal more about his Derby credentials.

Still to come next week is a key Derby trial in the form of the Dante Stakes at York (1m 2f 110y).

Of course, winning the trials does not mean you win the Derby and there is certainly a question about the quality of competition in the trial races and the relevance of Derby trials in the modern racing calendar.

Despite all of these winners for Aidan O’Brien, Jim Bolger’s Dawn Approach, winner of May’s 2000 Guineas at Newmarket, remains 13/8 favourite with William Hill for the Epsom Derby.

Race Day Betting: Qipco 2000 Guineas

The betting suggests the first Classic of the season is a match between Dawn Approach (7/4f with William Hill) and Toronado (2/1).

Several of today’s runners found themselves behind Dawn Approach in races last season, be it the Coventry Stakes at Royal Ascot or the Dewhurst Stakes at Newmarket. If all those horses – Dawn Approach, Cristoforo Colombo, George Vancouver, and Leitir Mor – have improved from 2yo to 3yo to a similar level then it is hard to argue that any will reverse the form with Dawn Approach.

There is no doubting what Dawn Approach has done on the racecourse as a two-year-old but he has been described as a ‘lazy’ horse and there has been no opportunity to see him run on the racecourse as a three-year-old. As such, some elements of his prospects for the 2000 Guineas have to be taken on trust as a punter. In return for that ‘blind’ trust I want a bigger price than the 7/4 that is available.

So, the selection is Toronado for Richard Hannon. The colt’s win in the Craven Stakes was impressive, regardless of the quality of the horses he beat that day. It showed a horse that could handle both course and distance as well as quicken at different stages of the race. It provides me with more recent evidence of ability as a three-year-old than I have for Dawn Approach and I get a bigger price for it too.

The Hannon stable has been in good form in general since the start of the season and connections are confident about the chances of their runner.

Richard Hannon Jnr said on the stable’s website: “Toronado did his last proper piece of work last Sunday and goes to Newmarket in the form of his life. We always felt that he was more one for the Derby than the Guineas, but this spring he has been showing much speed in the mornings than he did last year, so, while Dawn Approach is obviously a very good horse, we feel that we have a solid chance of beating him.”

2000 Guineas Betting Offer

Ladbrokes is offering a refund of your stake as a free bet (up to £25) if Dawn Approach wins the 2000 Guineas.

Ladbrokes have Dawn Approach at 5/4 and Toronado at 2/1

Racing Preview: Qipco 1000 Guineas

The Qipco 1000 Guineas is the second Classic race of the British Flat season, taking place on the day after the 2000 Guineas. It is run over a mile at Newmarket’s Rowley Mile course and is open only to 3yo fillies.

As with the 2000 Guineas, the 1000 Guineas has had some big-priced outsiders win the event in recent years. Aidan O’Brien’s Homecoming Queen won the 2012 renewal of the race at 25/1, whilst the 2011 race went to Blue Bunting at 16/1.

In 2010 Sir Henry Cecil’s Jacqueline Quest was first past the post at 66/1 by a nose from Criquette Head-Maarek’s Special Duty. But the result was reversed in a stewards’ enquiry, giving the race to the French filly.

If Jacqueline Quest had kept the race it would have been Sir Henry’s first win in the Classic since Wince in 1999. The trainer has the current favourite for the 2013 Qipco 1000 Guineas in the shape of Hot Snap (5/2).

1000 Guineas: Leading Contenders

Hot Snap: Unbeaten in two runs, Sir Henry Cecil’s filly moved to the head of the 1000 Guineas betting with a win in the Nell Gwyn Stakes at Newmarket in April. She beat fellow 1000 Guineas entry Sky Lantern on that occasion.

Quoted on his website sirhenrycecil.com, Sir Henry believes: "The mile will suit her better and hopefully the experience of the Nell Gwyn will have brought her on. She is coming in her coat but will always be a very tall filly with plenty of bone (and) not over-robust.”

Just The Judge: Another unbeaten filly, with two wins over 7f at Newbury and a Group 2 victory in the Rockfel Stakes, also over 7f, at Newmarket (Rowley Mile) in October 2012. Has not had a preparation race, unlike some of her rivals, but connections were pleased with her final serious work out on Saturday 27 April.

What A Name: Trained in France by Mikel Delzangles, who won the 2000 Guineas with Makfi in 2010 at 33/1. What A Name won the Group 3 Priz La Rochette at Longchamp in September 2012 before putting up a very good performance against the colts when runner-up in heavy ground to Olympic Glory in the Group 1 Grand Criterium (Longchamp). Has had a run this season, winning the Group 3 Prix Imprudence (7f) at Maisons-Laffitte in early April.

Sky Lantern: Finished second to Hot Snap when favourite for the Nell Gwyn Stakes at Newmarket’s Craven Meeting in April. Jockey Richard Hughes said firmer ground would suit the filly better and if the ground is firmer for the 1000 Guineas you might see a different result. Sky Lantern was also carrying a 3lb penalty that day for her Group 1 win in the Moyglare Stud Stakes at the Curragh (September 2012).

Moth: Aidan O’Brien’s filly was supplemented for the 1000 Guineas earlier this week, as she did not originally hold an entry for the Classic. She won a maiden race in good style over 7f at the Curragh in April and quickened well when asked, showing good speed. Paying the GB£ 30,000 to have her added to the line-up is some measure of the faith connections have in the filly.

Racing Preview: Qipco 2000 Guineas

The Qipco 2000 Guineas is the first Classic race in the British Flat season. It is run in early May over a distance of a mile (8 furlongs) at Newmarket’s Rowley Mile course. The race is open to three-year olds, both colts and fillies. The race title is derived from the approximate value of all the entry fees for the first running of the race.

Camelot and Frankel have been two recent short-priced winners but for a few years before that the race had a habit of throwing up some longer priced winners: Makfi (33/1), Sea The Stars (8/1), Henrythenavigator (11/1), and Cockney Rebel (25/1). Indeed, there have been several short-priced favourites that have been beaten in the race over the years, such as: Xaar (1998), New Approach (2008), St Nicholas Abbey (2010).

Interestingly, the favourite for the 2013 contest is Dawn Approach, whose sire is New Approach, who finished second by a nose to Henrythenavigator in 2008 when the 11/8 favourite.

2000 Guineas: Leading Contenders

Dawn Approach: Jim Bolger’s colt is unbeaten in six races, including wins in the 2012 Coventry Stakes at Royal Ascot (beating Cristoforo Colombo). He was last seen on the racecourse at Newmarket in October 2012 when winning the Dewhurst Stakes.

The trainer has said Dawn Approach has thrived over the winter and there has been no hitch in his preparation for the 2000 Guineas. For this reason, the Bolger decided that no preparatory race was required and his colt will go straight to the Classic.

Dawn Approach has never raced over a mile and has been described as a ‘lazy’ horse. But the horse has shown the expected physical improvement from 2yo to 3yo and may even improve for running over a mile.

Toronado: Like Dawn Approach, Toronado is unbeaten on the racecourse. Richard Hannon’s colt was an impressive winner of the Craven Stakes over course and distance in April. The stable also have a good guide to his relative merits versus Dawn Approach because the stable’s Olympic Glory was second to Dawn Approach in the Coventry Stakes at last year’s Royal Ascot meeting.

The Craven Stakes performance showed that Toronado can handle the dip in the Rowley Mile course and he showed good speed.

Mars: Very little to know about Mars, other than he is trained by Aidan O’Brien, who has trained the winner of the 2000 Guineas five times since the year 2000, including in Camelot in 2012. Mars’ only racecourse form is a four-length win in a seven-furlong maiden at Dundalk in July 2012. The trainer still has a couple of other entries in the race – Cristoforo Colombo, George Vancouver – so it is difficult to know which horse is the stable’s best chance.

Cristoforo Colombo: Another Aidan O’Brien challenger and third behind Dawn Approach in last season’s Coventry Stakes. Has not raced beyond six furlongs in his career but is sired by 2000 Guineas winner Henrythenavigator. Finished fourth in last Octobers Middle Park stakes at Newmarket behind another 2000 Guineas contender Moohaajim (second).

Newmarket Craven Meeting Review

The Craven Meeting was held over Wednesday and Thursday last week (17-18 April 2013) at Newmarket’s Rowley Mile course. Historically, the Craven Meeting acted as a good guide for horses to watch later in the season and for the Classics. It is certainly worth spending the time watching the races a few times for horses that look like they could progress as the season goes on – such horses are not necessarily those that won their race at the Craven Meeting.

Sir Henry Cecil had a successful meeting, sending out Hot Snap to win the Nell Gwyn Stakes for fillies on the Wednesday and Tickled Pink to win the Abernant Stakes on Thursday.

One feature of the Craven Meeting is strongly fancied horses being beaten early on in the season. Six of the 16 races were won by the favourites over the two days. John Gosden’s Ghurair was even money favourite for the valuable 200,000 Tattersalls Millions 3yo Trophy but was beaten into a narrow third by Mark Johnston’s Windhoek and Greatwood for Luca Cumani.

Sir Henry Cecil’s Stipulate (15/8 favourite) was beaten into second by Mull Of Killough in the Earl Of Sefton Stakes, whilst Sky Lantern (11/4 favourite) finished second behind Hot Snap in the Nell Gwyn Stakes.

Richard Hannon’s three-year-old Toronado (8/11 favourite) looked impressive when winning the Craven Stakes, albeit in small four-runner field.  Richard Hughes made every yard of the running in the mile contest and only really faced a half-heated challenge from Dundonnell at the two furlong post. The High Chaparral colt is now unbeaten in four runs and is currently 3/1 second favourite for the Qipco 2000 Guineas, which will be run over the same course and distance on 4 May 2013.

It was a shame that the Craven Meeting was not shown on terrestrial television, given the meeting’s position at the start of the Flat season.

Channel 4 Racing said: “90 days per year is the biggest commitment to racing Channel 4 has ever shown, but unfortunately the Craven Meeting is among those to miss out.”

I would have preferred to have been able to watch at least one day of the Craven Meeting on Channel 4 rather than the Saturday’s mediocre racing they showed from Kempton (all weather) and Doncaster on the weekend (13 April) prior to the Craven.

It is certainly true that the Craven Meeting does not have the importance it once did as a trial for the bigger races later in the season – as shown by the relatively small fields for Craven Stakes, Earl Of Sefton Stakes, and Feilden Stakes – but either day of the meeting still had more merit from a racing perspective than the previous Saturday’s fare.

Talking Race Horses: Part 2

The age and sex of a racehorse are two important characteristics which can influence a horse’s racing career.

In the northern hemisphere all thoroughbred horses have their official birthday on 1 January, regardless of when they were actually born. So a horse born in November will actually turn one year old (a ‘yearling’) just two months later in January.

This universal birthday can have racing implications. Flat racehorses start their racing career at two years old and the universal birthday means there can be some ‘old’ and ‘young’ two-year-olds taking to the racecourse.

In theory the youngest ‘two-year-old’ could actually have only been alive for one year.
E.g. born 31 December 2012; turn one year old on 1 January 2013 (one day after it was born); turn two years old on 1 January 2014 (when the horse has only been alive for 12 months).

At the other extreme a foal born on 2 January will actually be a year old when it has its official birthday the following 1 January.

So the ideal is to have a foal born in the early months of the year because it will be more mature and physically developed when it takes to the racecourse. Over time any difference in physical maturity and development diminishes.

In the southern hemisphere the official birthday is 1 August.

Yearling: a one-year-old horse i.e. in the second year of its life

Juvenile: a two-year-old racehorse

Colt: a male horse up to and including the age of four-years-old

Filly: a female horse up to and including the age of four-years-old

Horse: a male horse aged five or older

Mare: a female horse aged five or older

Entire: an ungelded (not castrated) male horse, also called a ‘full’ horse

Gelding: a male horse that has been castrated

Stallion: a male horse used for breeding purposes

Broodmare: a female horse used for breeding purposes

The age and sex of a horse can determine the races in which it can participate as some races are open only to certain age groups or sexes. For example:

• The 1,000 Guineas race is open to three-year-old fillies only
• The 2,000 Guineas is open to three-year-old colts and fillies
• Geldings are not allowed to take part in the Classic races: 2,000 Guineas, 1,000 Guineas,  Derby, Oaks, St Leger
• A nursery race is a handicap race for two-year-olds
• In jumps racing veterans races are open to horses and mares aged 10 or older
• There are also mares only races