Racing Preview: The Lancashire Chase (Betfair Chase)

The Betfair Chase at Hyadock on Saturday (23 November) could see several of the jump season’s big guns line up against one another.

10 are declared at this stage including last season’s Cheltenham Gold Cup winner Bobs Worth (Nicky Henderson) and the winner of the 2012 Betfair Chase Silviniaco Conti (Paul Nicholls). These two are at the head of the betting for the 2013 running of the Betfair Chase at 2/1 and 5/2 respectively.

Long Run is also declared and he will need to improve markedly from his run in the Charlie Hall Chase at Wetherby earlier in the month (a distant fifth when odds-on favourite). An early price of 12/1, sixth in the betting, reflects the size of the task the bookmakers think he faces.

Tidal Bay was a winner on that same card at Wetherby in the bet365 Hurdle and is also entered in the Betfair Chase with an early price of 7/1.

Colin Tizzard’s Cue Card, beaten favourite in the Haldon Gold Cup when trying to carry top weight a few weeks ago, is also entered, as is David Pipe’s Dynaste.

The Irish challenge comes from the JNwine.com Champion Chase winner Roi Du Mee (Gordon Elliott) and Prince De Beauchene (Willie Mullins), who was well beaten in third in that same race.

If all runners stand their ground the trainers can’t be accused of dodging their main rivals early in the season. Some reputations could take a bit of a hit after Saturday’s race is run.

Racing Review: Cheltenham Open Meeting

Much time will need to be spent watching and re-watching the weekend’s action from Cheltenham in search of early clues for the Festival next March.

It might prove to be the case that Sunday’s card provided the most informative races.

One trend that seemed to be apparent over the weekend was that horses at the lower end of the weights were victorious. Some examples:

• Anay Turge (weight 10-10, plus 3 lbs jockey allowance) in the Paddy Power Handicap Chase
• Alvarado (10-0) in the Murphy Group Handicap Chase
• Johns Spirit (10-2) in the Paddy Power Gold Cup (Colour Squadron (10-2) in second place)
• Return Spring (10-2, plus 3 lbs jockey allowance) in the Ultima Business Solutions Handicap Hurdle
• Kid Cassidy (11-0) beating Sire De Grugy (11-10 top weight) in the Shloer Chase
• Dell’ Arca (10-5) in the Greatwood Hurdle

This might be the result of a couple of factors:

• the going, which was reported to be “dead” and “tacky”, making life more difficult for those with more weight to carry
• the timing of the meeting with some horses not fully assessed by the handicapper

One thing is interesting to note – the runner-up in the Greatwood Hurdle was Sametegal, carrying 11-7. The second and third in the Ultima Business Solutions Handicap Hurdle were Salubrious and Southfield Theatre, carrying 11-12 and 11-3 respectively. All three lost out narrowly to much lighter weighted rivals. All three are trained by Paul Nicholls.

What’s the conclusion to draw from this small sample?

• Nicholls’ runners are in the handicapper’s grasp compared to other trainers?
• Nicholls’ runners are in great form and running up to their mark?
• Nicholls’ runners will prosper later in the season, perhaps dropping a few pounds in the handicap whilst other, currently less exposed, rivals go up in weight?

The pondering and analysis continues.

Go racing and get the edge

Actually going to the racecourse, rather than watching it on television (enjoyable though it is), can give you some advantages when it comes to betting because you get to see the horses up close and ‘in the flesh’.

Being able to assess the horse, how it looks in the parade ring, and how it moves down to post can be invaluable for eliminating potential betting selections from the shortlist and whittling it down to one (or two).

The following advice is taken from Richard Dunwoody’s Dunwoody on racing column in The Mirror (Get out of the bar.. get on parade for spotting winners, 22 November 2008).

• “Looking at horses in the parade ring is a vital part of finding winners.”
• “One of the best indicators of a horse’s wellbeing is its coat… if its coat is shining, a horse is usually in good health and in peak condition.”
• “It is a good rule of thumb to find a trainer whose horses are always in peak condition and compare the other runners to them.”
• “In the parade ring a horse should be alert but not over excited or fretful.”
• “But be careful not to write off horses who seem half asleep…as soon as the jockey mounts, they know they have a job to do and come alive.”
• “You can usually tell if a horse is fit by looking at its stomach. Study them enough and in time you will be able to spot what’s known in the trade as a ‘fitness line’. This runs almost parallel to, and is just above, the bottom of the belly.”
• “Paddock-watching is a very inexact science and … the knowledge only comes with experience.”

A collection of bookmakers

What is the collective noun for a group of bookmakers?

A satchel? A ring?

Racing Review: Charlie Hall Chase

It is difficult to assess the quality of the performances in the 2013 Charlie Hall Chase. The fact that Long Run (4/5f) performed so poorly makes the relative performances of the placed horses harder to judge.

The winner, Harry Topper (5/1) jumped very poorly on the first circuit. Jason Maguire did well to coax him round. The jumping improved later in the race but you would not fancy him in a faster run race round somewhere like Cheltenham until he jumps more solidly.

Harry Topper did confirm last season’s Newbury novices’ chase form with Benefficient (17/2), who doesn’t seem to last home over 3 miles in testing ground.

But the fact the five-year-old only saw off runner-up Wayward Prince (50/1) by a nose was hardly convincing. Wayward Prince has a liking for the Wetherby track but was giving Harry Topper 4 lbs and had been beaten by a combined distance of almost 130 lengths on his last three starts (including two top-level Grade 1 races) prior to Saturday.

Unioniste (13/2) ran ‘OK’ but again, even on his first run of the season, should be beating the likes of Wayward Prince.

Cape Tribulation (15/2) seemed to be jumping quite smoothly but had no pace and was always at the back of the field. He was pulled up in the home straight, never really in contention at any stage.

Racing Preview: Charlie Hall Chase

On official ratings and past glories Long Run should win the 2013 Charlie Hall Chase comfortably. This race is also a drop down in grade for the 2011 Gold Cup winner. A price of 6/5 reflects this but the possible weaknesses are: carrying top weight against some younger horses, this being his first run of the season round a course he has not tackled before, and the stated aim that the short term target is the Betfair Chase at Haydock later in the month.

From a betting point of view, it is unfortunate that the field has been reduced to seven runners. Cape Tribulation has some good course form and looked to be a good each-way bet at around 7/1 earlier in the week, when three places were on offer.

Unioniste has a similar profile to last year’s winner from the same stable Silviniaco Conti. He gets weight from Long Run but his chance perhaps revolves around your reading of his fourth place in RSA Chase at Cheltenham. Was it a creditable performance against older horses or a race which showed his place against horses in Class 1 company?

Benefficient has the advantage of a preparatory run at Listowel and of having Tony McCoy in the saddle but he has only once raced at three miles or further. On that occasion (over three miles at Newbury) he was beaten by Harry Topper.

At the prices, the selection is CAPE TRIBULATION (13/2). It could just be that Long Run will not be at his best first time out. At this stage of the season I don’t want to be taking a price of 6/5 to find out.