Silviniaco Conti (Paul Nicholls) is the clear 3/1 favourite and has had a strong season but his record at the Cheltenham Festival reads 3F4, with the last two runs being in the Gold Cup itself. So, with a win record of 0/3, there has to be a strong argument made that something is different this time around.
In recent history, no horse has come back to win the Gold Cup having failed to win it in a previous year.
Kauto Star won the race in 2007, was defeated in 2008, and then returned to win again in 2009.
The argument that it will be third time lucky in the race for Silviniaco Conti is based in the claim that the horse was suffering from gastric ulcers last season – although he was able to win at Aintree a month after losing at Cheltenham.
Paul Nicholls has told Sportinglife.com: “What he’s doing this year, which he didn’t do last year, is finishing off his races strongly. We found out after he won at Aintree last year that he was suffering from gastric ulcers. We’ve been on top of that now and it’s obviously made a difference, along with the cheekpieces which have got him jumping sharper and stopped him being lazy.”
He also views the horse’s record at Cheltenham as “unlucky”:
“He’s been very unlucky at Cheltenham in a lot of ways. He ran very well once there in the Bula, was going very well when he fell at the third last in the Gold Cup two years ago and last year he jumped the last in front, so you can’t say he doesn’t act there.”
By contrast, Lord Windermere’s win record at the Festival is 2/2 and is 14/1 for this year’s Gold Cup. But his form this season has been lacklustre – although this is no different to his performances before last season’s Gold Cup - and reigning Gold Cup champions have struggled to retain their title in the following season.
The money this week has been for Djakadam (Willie Mullins), who is in from 16/1 to 12/1. He won a foggy running of the Thyestes Handicap Chase at Gowran Park in January 2015 but was beaten a long way in 8th in the Hennessy Gold Cup behind Many Clouds (8/1 for the Gold Cup) in his seasonal debut in November 2014. He is only six years old, however, and there has been only one winner of that age since 2004 (2009: Long Run).